Monday January 3, 2000

The 48th Appleton Handicap

2. Ray's Approval...Fires/113...Probably better suited to lower levels.

3. Cryptic Rascal...Smith/113...Good to see Mike Smith back in South Florida. The son of Cryptoclearance hasn't run since October 1, but he's been working here at Palm Beach Downs. On his best he could be competitive here. Badgett winning just 11% on 90+ days away.

4. Divide And Conquer...Velasquez/114...Figures to take some money but he's very beatable. Hasn't run his best races on this track and was beaten by 6 lengths in one of the supporting Breeders' Cup races here in November. Hasn't won since April and that was an allowance at Aqueduct. Shug wins 22% 31-90 days away and he and Velasquez winning 25% with a positive ROI. Probably won't be worth the price.

5. Hibernian Rhapsody...Santos/115...Bounced back nicely in the Tropical Turf at Calder. He likes this course too as he scored a 9 1/2 length win here last year first time off the boat. Have utmost respect for Clemente in these circumstances as he gets them ready for their best every time. He won 19% last year and he and Santos combining for 23% winners and a positive ROI. 2 for 2 at the distance.

6. Shamrock City...Prado/114...Edgar Prado returns to South Florida on this grandson of Seattle Slew who looked every bit the winner last time in the Tropical Turf. But he weakened late and finished 3rd. He'll get to shorten up here but I have to wonder if it will be short enough. He ran twice here last year winning at a mile on the grass, but failing miserably at 1 1/16 in a $38,000 allowance. Prado and Moubarak winning 36% from 11 starts with a +4.31 ROI. Your call.

7. Vergennes...Day/114...Went winless last year due to quite an ambitious schedule. Including a 1 1/4 length loss on this course to Federal Trial in the Canadian Turf Handicap. He did win the Hollywood Derby in 98 which might have prompted the outlook. He had a nice work here last Tuesday but he is 0 for 2 over this course. Hennig shipping at 18% with a positive ROI.

8. Keats And Yeats...Chavez/113...Never out of the money in his last 7. However, those were lesser races than this. And with a full field here, it wouldn't make sense to take a small price, or at least TOO small of a price. His 1 1/16 times are competitive here though. And he might be able to make the exotics. Scanlan won 18% last year.

9. Morluc...Sellers/112...Ambitious placing for this one, though the last was more like a cakewalk. Don't expect this crowd to fold up like a cheap tent though. Likely to set the early pace which really isn't the most effective way to tackle this course. Been working real well here including a bullet on Thursday. Worth some consideration if the odds are right.

10. El Angelo...Castellano/113...6-2-1-1 at the distance including the last which was a $61,000 allowance. Just 3 lengths out in the G3 River City last time, and he was advancing at the finish. That was 1 1/8 though so he would need to get an earlier start. Castellano won 19% out of 1530 starts on the Florida circuit last year. He has possibilities at a square price I would guess.

11. Inkatha...Bailey/114...The old man doesn't look all that comfortable at this level anymore. He won his last, but that was an allowance at Calder. He really had a rough trip in the Fraise here on November 5th, and finished well back as a result. Have to respect Mott/Bailey, but I'm just not sure he has it in him.

12. Wouldn't We All...Chavez/112...As of this writing, Chavez named here too. My guess is this one will be scratched because he looks suited to the main track. And the way it looks, we'll be on the turf here.

13. Political Folly...Velasquez/110...Same here. Expect a scratch.

      I'm gonna hope for a square price from Hibernian Rhapsody. I liked the way he handled the course last year and his effort in the Fraise can be forgiven as he was off the layoff and a bit rank early on. He still finished 4th beaten by 4 1/2. Tropical Turf should set him up well here.

      Divide And Conquer ran a great effort in the Kelso back in October. Then was forced 6 wide here in the Fraise while finishing 6 back. He should be rested for a prime effort and Shug can win off the layoff.

      Hard to decide between Shamrock City and Vergennes for this spot. So I'll take them both.