The BIG Canon

Daylami aces the 99 Turf at Gulfstream

The 17th Running--November 4, 2000

WAGERING :

2. SURFSIDE--She's ready for a BIG effort and I have a feeling this is the spot. After 6 months off  from ankle chip surgery she came back nicely at Keeneland. Two removed from the layoff and connections could spell trouble. She has more upside than most of the others. No telling what price will be though as Lukas, Day,  and homebred for Overbrook not likely to be overlooked by, as Andy Beyer says, "The Kentucky Boobs". Wait a minute. This is the Breeders' Cup. What am I thinking?

3. BEAUTIFUL PLEASURE--Sure, she's been brilliant this year. My feeling is she might be a bit over here and maybe not the BIGgest fan of this surface. This track warrants skepticism, and I give it plenty! Chance for 2nd though if I'm wrong, and we all know the possibilities there. In fact, a repeat of the Beldame isn't out of the question. Funny. Last year, I would have never dreamed I would say that. It's my feeling that Riboletta is just that much better though. Outside won't help.

4. LU RAVI--Brilliant work on Saturday and she appears very capable right now. There always seems to be a BIG favorite in this race and once again, there is in Riboletta. If not for her, this gal could likely do it. Coronation day for AP Indy progeny?

5. Jostle

2. RAGING FEVER--Ran the race of her short life at the SPA in the goo. So if we end up off here, look out. As it is on a dry surface, she might have done herself in with some tough recent efforts as numbers suggest she is on a down trend. A tad leg-weary in the Frizette, and it doesn't get any easier here as she'll attempt two turns. Possibly out, but I have to include on heart.

3. THUNDER BERTIE--Have to believe she is ready to run the race of her life, which just might get it done here. Being as how she is out of a Derby winner, and has a strong effort over this surface in July, I'm wagering now is her time to step up. Strong works here don't discourage. Post position is a definite bummer.

4. Notable Career. 5. Nasty Storm 6. She's A Devil Due

1. DANSILI--Very little out of order with this guy. Held on gamely for 2nd against Kalinisi in the Queen Anne at Ascot. Probably didn't like it as soft as he got it at Longchamp in September. His effort over the same good course last year when trailing Sendawar by only 1/2 is probably more indicative of his ability. A good 2nd to Indian Lodge last out but that one seems to have developed an up/down pattern, this being his down. No reason to think this guy can't run huge, and probably for a decent price.

2. MUHTATHIR--How do you pronounce it? Search me! He's had time to recover from that strange Atto effort and though he shows no works since, you know Godolphin doesn't ship anymore unless a BIG shot is perceived. Very impressive run vs. Sendawar and King Salsa in August. That kind of effort would win this. Definitely capable, given the right mood

3. ARKADIAN HERO--I was stunned when I watched the replay of the Atto, including the shot over his shoulder in the gate as the rest were already well away. Then he gets up for 2nd, barely missing all the marbles! "What the @&%#", I thought. How good might he be? He'll be a BIG enough price for me to include him in a major way, that's for sure.

4. HAP--Nightmare trip in the Kelso where he seemed to want to run all day, but was constantly behind others when it mattered. Bailey will go to King Cugat leaving McCarron. I'll take that sub any day of the week, and Jerry may wish he'd have stayed home after this one. Despite the last, a steady progression to the top for this son of Theatrical.

5. Indian Lodge 6. War Chant

 1. TRIPPI--No, I'm not abandoning ship. Part of my success playing this horse this year has been based on putting him in concert (on my tickets) with the right supporting players. It just so happens he turned out as nice as he looked when he first stepped on the track at Gulfstream on January 29. He's run some spectacular races, a few of which it almost seemed like all of the cards fell his way. It could happen again. He is firmly planted to take another step up from his last: a career best in the Vosburgh. Interestingly, I think he'll actually appreciate the shorter trip, but Churchill's run-up will make it seem like 6 1/2 anyway. All he does is win. I'd love to see it again!

2. MORE THAN READY--Despite the fact he probably would prefer 7 furlongs. Despite the fact that he'll have to drill his way through traffic--most likely. Yea, despite the fact that the beloved Trippi also runs here, I have to put him on top too. He's definitely waited long enough for prime time. He's got all of the necessary ingredients for a win here. Ready to break through.

3. AGNES WORLD--This guy has been running some incredible sprints across the pond on the lawn, while carrying as much as 11 pounds more than he'll tote today. That, coupled with breeding (Danzig out of a Seattle Slew mare) that suggests dirt will not be a hindrance, and I'm right there on him. Of course, you never know until they go, but as a definite overlay, I'll take a swing. He's only amassed $3.1M so far. Check!

4. Kona Gold 5. Caller One 

2. CATELLA--She's been running against the best males in Germany and doing quite well, thank you. Some efforts include a third to Mutafaweq at 12 f, a second behind Samum and in front of Fruits Of Love. Outside post might be a slight detraction, but she normally places herself in the rear to mid-pack so hopefully she'll make her way inside before the first turn.

3. COLSTAR--Won here in June in a monster effort that would likely get her the win. Most impressive was her Flower Bowl where it looked she was left for dead, then Samyn caught Bailey napping and just got up. Sire Opening Verse won the Mile on this course in 91. Third race off the layoff here and she's had time to recover from that effort at Belmont. Strong exotics play to say the least.

4. PERFECT STING--Bailey let McCarron steal the race at Keeneland last out but that shouldn't happen here, and actually might have set her up well for this. Dazzling work here last week and by all accounts she looks dynamite!

5. Caffe Latte 5. Tout Charmont

2. AP VALENTINE--My early choice for the Derby so I am keeping him out of top spot here to avoid Juvy curse. That, and the fact that this might be asking a lot seeing as how this is his 4th in 60 days. Absolutely love breeding. Zito knows the way to Churchill winner's circle on first Saturday in May. And while I'm not completely enamored of Chavez, he is certainly capable. Decent work on the 23rd. If the tank has anything left, he'll be dangerous for the win. If he does win, you can count on that Juvy curse going bye-bye next May.

3. STREET CRY--Is the the race where he finally lands in front of Flame Thrower? I think so. He's had to travel wide in both efforts finishing just behind the Baffert trainee. This time, with time and more seasoning, I expect him to turn the tables. The only problem is that the BIG 2 from the east are included here. Nice work on the 24th, but I would have preferred it come at Churchill. Harty 0 for 6 in graded stakes which will change before long.

4. Arabian Light  5.Flame Thrower

2. KALANISI--This guy, I expect, will sweep through here like one of those deadly twisters that pop up occasionally around these parts. Judging from his record, his connections, and his breeding, he is absolutely a stand-out here. Only question is whether he can handle the distance, and it's a valid one. He generally sits mid-pack and makes a move with a couple of furlongs to go. I expect he'll be in the lead with about 3 furlongs to go here. Those last 3 furlongs will answer the question.

3. CIRO--Chris Clemente has been a favorite of mine for quite awhile. He seems to get the absolute most he can out of some horses that didn't live up to their potential overseas, be it ever so slightly. He generally places his clients where they have a great shot at the picture. Only thing I fear (besides fear itself) is the dreaded Euro-regression that usually occurs after a trip over and one or two strong efforts. Gotta respect a guy that has a healthy ROI in graded stakes with 160+  starts. This BUD's for you, Chris!

4. FANTASTIC LIGHT--Dettori swoops in for the mount on another that would qualify for the regression.

5. Mutamam  6.Quiet Resolve

2. GIANT'S CAUSEWAY--Will have to acclimate to the surface, but breeding says that shouldn't be a problem. He's turned into one of the best in the world and his presence here and the match-up with FuPeg is quite intriguing. He's won 5 of his last 6 grade 1's. He's worked over a simulated dirt course so he's been pointed to this for awhile. It's my feeling that if any can take the top choice, it's this guy.  He gets the juice too!

3. ALBERT THE GREAT--How does he do it? He's like a Timex, he just keeps on ticking. If JCGC took too much out he could find himself struggling in deep stretch here. But expect no change in tactics as he'll likely jump out and try to snake-charm the field into a dreamy trance. Sure he's a bounce candidate, but still an improving 3 year-old. Tough campaign, but the last work at Belmont says he still has some juice. How will he handle Churchill? If he can by some miracle pair-up the Gold Cup here, FuPeg will have his work cut out for him.

4. CAPTAIN STEVE--It's not likely he can last 10 furlongs, thus the super-filler here. He does love this track though and Pegram saw fit to supplement. The Coors light will be flowing if he holds on for a BIGger piece. Finished 4th in the Preakness which should fit him here as well.

4. Tiznow 5. Cat Thief  ;-)