Saturday April 15, 2000

The 76th Blue Grass Stakes
9th @ Keeneland--All carry 123

2. Deputy Warlock...Guidry...Put in a rally in the Spiral that is hidden as it was about the same time as Globalize's second one. Beaten more than 23 lengths in his two Grade 1 appearances.  Has come from off the pace in all but his maiden winner. That style won't get you many opportunities to say "cheese" here. Appears better suited to 8 1/2 furlongs. McPeek having a nice year winning 25%.

3. Bare Outline...Coa...Might find this surface to his liking as he finished well at Gulfstream before they slowed it down. Recent works here seem to confirm this. That Florida Derby effort of course *after* this had happened. Zito adds blinkers and enjoys a 24% win rate with a positive ROI when doing so. Certainly could sneak in the exotics, near the bottom it seems. Likely to be a pretty hefty price as well I would imagine.

4. High Yield...Day...Wonderful effort in the Florida Derby where he tracked very close in 2nd all the way around. When it counted late though, his rival had enough to hold him off. He should like the surface here and will find that same colt waiting for him packing a 46:1 bullet over this track. Looks like a repeat to me. Though wouldn't be surprised to see the tables turned here. Boarded and working at Churchill which will come into play later. Lukas 0 for 10 at the meet as of Thursday evening.  

5. Wheelaway...Migliore...It's a long way from the Tampa Bay Derby to the Blue Grass, but this guy shows loads of promise and could make a BIG splash here. Track won't be a problem and he has the advantage of shipping from Payson which should set him up well here. Has plenty of tactical speed so even if he breaks poorly, which he has a tendency for, can get himself into position before it's too late. Very dangerous here and with Kimmel winning 21% for the year, 20% in graded stakes, and 25% when shipping don't be surprised if he is in the exacta.

6. Hal's Hope...Velez...My tongue took a vacation from my mouth when I saw the time of his work over this track on Sunday. Most impressive and gritty run in the Florida Derby and that track was as fair as fair can be that day. Not to worry though, as he liked the speedier version earlier in Gulfstream's meet as well. Brisk pace in the Fountain Of Youth caught up with him late but a second or so slower and he's right there. Don't know if that will be possible as there is plenty of speed here. Work says tank is still on Full. What will pace be like here?

7. More Than Ready...Velasquez...In spite of decent run in New Orleans, he still looks better suited to shorter. Showed brilliant speed early last year but tanked when he tried to stretch-out in the fall. Likewise earlier this year. He looked invincible in the Hutcheson, but when the longer Louisiana Derby came calling, he gave it up late after moderate fractions. A better effort yes. But not one that would inspire Derby confidence. He'll have plenty of company up front which won't help his chances. Pletcher 0 for 7 at the meet as of Thursday evening. 

8. Mighty...Sellers...The "Now" horse. Seems as though everyone wants on his bandwagon since the Louisiana Derby. That effort was his best since the loss to Captain Steve at Churchill in the Jockey Club last November. You have to wonder how much Frankie will want to use him here. Especially when you look at that sparkling work he threw at Churchill on Monday. A track he has multiple wins over. A track he will likely visit again in 3 weeks for teh BIG prize. Brothers winning 24% for the year and 23% 31-90 days off.

      It's hard to go against Hal's Hope here. He's 2 and 1 in 3 graded efforts this year. He obviously likes the track. And he could take a small step forward which would be a monster effort, as well as a winning one.

     I'll use Wheelaway 2nd. I think he's gonna make a surprising run and add some beef to the exacta.

     I can envision DWL instructing Pat not to push too hard on High Yield. A nice even 3rd place finish would be fine with this crew 3 weeks out I would imagine.

    Same could be said for Mighty, though he's likely going to move forward a bit and could even end up 3rd, or even 2nd.

1. Hal's Hope

2. Wheelaway

3. High Yield

The 76th Wood Memorial

9th @ Aqueduct

1. Exchange Rate...Tough to go against DWL with a talented runner who looks as though he may be coming into his best right now. Kept close attendance to some pretty strong fractions in Louisiana which might have cost him the win. 1 1/8 shouldn't be a problem. Has the foundation to be sitting on a career best here. He'll need it to earn the trip.

2. Fusaichi Pegasus...This winged rascal ships in as over-hyped as they come. When you are a $4M purchase though, that allows plenty of room for error, which he hasn't needed yet. Unfortunate dead-end for Hancock if he scores here and in Louisville, which is within reach at this point. Drysdale doesn't ship with the best of 'em.

3. Red Bullet...Home team could score a BIGger stake here as it's difficult to read the shippers in advance. A must use this far down for sure.

4. Aptitude...Will find it more difficult to pass some of these.

The 64th Arkansas Derby

9th @ Oaklawn

1. Ronton...Here's one that'll shock you, or finish last. I think he could just score here at HUGE odds. He's jumping up but this race is W I D E open. Like his effort late in the Rushaway. This is normally a speedy surface but there is plenty of speed to set it up for him. Longshot city!!!!

2. Snuck In...Effort in the Rebel was diminishing. Another 1/16 and we'd probably be discussing BIG Numbers. As it is though, a good enough effort to place him 2nd here. Don't blame me though if, like NASDAQ, the bottom falls out here.

3. Fan The Flame...Completes the long tri here. Could be a huge price and could have a huge chance. Can Morse continue Sonny's magic?