Saturday January 22, 2000

The 34th Canadian Turf Handicap

2. Sharp Appeal...Castellano/115...Tank read E in the Tropical Turf. Evidently he just wanted the day off. Usually is competitive but finds trouble easily on this course. Last year in this race, he looked good enough to win but got boxed in on the turn and finished 6th, just 2 1/2 lengths out. Wolfson winning 21% off the mid-layoff and he and Castellano combining for 24% winners from 45 starts. Will he be worth his price?

3. Communicate...Jurado/112...Decent allowance runner to find the going a bit rough here..

4. Tangazi...Bailey/114...Looked very uncomfortable on the hedge here the day before the Breeders' Cup. Mott has been prepping him at Payson but missed a work during the holidays. Will that have an effect? Not a lot of confidence this time. He just seems like a non-factor here. Hmmmm. Them sounds like eatin' words! 

5. Virginia Carnival...Samyn/114...Came back from a nearly 2 year layoff 4-back. Threw a BIG one in the Cliffhanger next out. Okay performance against weak foes in the John Henry, then a nosedive in the Red Smith. Only 1 work showing since. No thanks.

6. Dancing Guy...Ferrer/114...Three stellar efforts lined up there at the top. Only problem, all on the dirt. Does he scratch here if we go on the lawn? Probably not. Green trying dirt to turf 6 times winning 2, with a +2.47 ROI. He and Ferrer have won 4 of 7 starts together. Again, a positive ROI here. Not worth a short price, but you might be surprised by his effort. If he gets ignored, I'll use him.

7. Divide And Conquer...Velasquez/113...I liked him in the Appleton and he didn't fire like I thought he would. Could have been the layoff. Could have been other things. I'll use him here as I think the effort might have awakened him. Shug and Velasquez winning 32%. 

8. Shamrock City...Prado/114...Not sure if he has enough to land the BIG prize here, but he certainly shows an affinity for being close lately in South Florida. Definite exotics threat, especially for the Super--if there is one.

9. Rhythmean...Sellers/113...Here's a dangerous one. Spotty pp's with wild swings in his pattern. Led late in the Calder Derby at 83-1 but just failed nearing the wire. A bit better placing here and he holds on. Probably not at 83-1, but likely at a decent price. A crap-shoot, but this race is wide open.

10. Nat's BIG Party...Davis/113...Probably gonna need this one as he's showing just one work since November. That Knickerbocker effort concerns me on a throw-out. Don't be surprised to see him beat you out of a placing here.

11. Charges D'affaires...Santos/115...You'll never catch me underestimating Clemente. This spot is no different. Ran a nice one in the Knickerbocker and has been training sensationally at Payson. A formula that works well for Chris. Would like to have seen the works a bit longer here, but 3f works at Payson equal to 4f works everywhere else. Who am I to second-guess this team anyway?

      I won't get caught looking out the window on Charges D'affaires. Clemente works wonders with grass horses here. What kind of price the only question.

     I'll use Divide And Conquer here again. A wise old tracker told me to stick with a horse 3 times and if he don't make me no cash by then, dump him. Here's number 2.

     Two long shots to round it out. Rhythmean and Nat's BIG Party. One of these two, if not both are gonna do some gate-crashing here!

1. Charges D'affaires

2. Divide And Conquer

3. Rhythmean and Nat's BIG Party