Saturday July 22, 2000

The 84th Coaching Club American Oaks
8th @ Belmont--All carry 121

2. Zoftig...St. Julien...She could be coming around to a good one here. She didn't handle Churchill well at all, and how many times have we seen that? Her efforts outside of Louisville have been excellent. It's my guess she'll have to be considered. Doyle shipping at 20% with a slightly positive ROI. He's trying first time blinkers here too. (13% win and a positive ROI)  Tough to leave out.

3. Polly Jo...Velasquez...So you want to toss this one? Oh yeah. By the way--Dickinson is winning 58% at the meet and 38% on the year. The Mad Genius will have to pull several rabbits out of a Derby to win this one. It wouldn't surprise me to see her in the super. She's bred for the distance which won't hurt. You can't toss Dickinson, you just can't!

4. Miss Chief...Bailey...You might be able to toss this one, though of course, Bailey makes that tough. He continues to win everything in sight and has the inside track on riding perhaps the BIGgest favorite in Breeders' Cup Classic history when Dubai Millennium makes the trip to Louisville this fall. Dettori's injury will dictate this outcome, but Bailey is sitting in the cat-bird seat, and he knows it. It would take a career best for Miss Chief to win or make an impact here. Not out of the question, but not likely.

5. Jostle...Smith....She's continually gotten better during her short career through a myriad of track surfaces and conditions. Might have been taken a bit fast through the Mother Goose fractions not allowing anything for the finish. Conservation will be at a premium today when she'll have to go 3/8 further than she ever has and it's a good possibility she won't like it.. Padded the early record with some soft Grade 3's, but she's come around sufficiently. Certain to like it if it's off. Coming right back off of a career best might be a problem. She's used to longer breaks between efforts.

6. Resort...Prado...Some strong late fractions late--of late, have prompted the entry here. Can't say I can argue, but we might be on another plane with these, at this point. The breeding suggests majesty might be on the way. Let's wait and see.

7. Secret Status...Day...Hard to go against either of these two right now. If not for a horror trip in February at Gulfstream, she'd be looking at 7 in a row here. I can't see any reason why she can't win this. There's no such thing as a sure thing. We all know that. She looks awful strong here. Not invincible by all means as she just paired-up career tops. Unfortunately, she'll be left unbettable by the odds. Exotics the only savior here. Pat knows the line's area-code.

      It's hard to get past Secret Status. Though she certainly could falter, I really don't believe she'll finish worse than second though.

      Zoftig could be difficult. She'll love the distance and could step right up into the exacta

      Sound Of The West is my effort to add some price here. She could fire BIG and get into the exacta if someone else isn't on their best.

     We'll feel mighty stupid if we let Dickinson loose with Polly Jo.  She'll like the distance and has every right to improve. I'll toss her in just for fun.

1. Secret Status

2. Zoftig

3. Sound Of The West