Brad's BIG Race Analysis

Kentucky Derby Edition

Brandon Benson

The Deputy wins the Santa Anita Derby

Saturday May 6, 2000

The 126th Kentucky Derby
8th @ Churchill--All carry 126

In Post Position order, with saddlecloth number and date of birth.

KEY:  DP=Dosage profile, DI=Dosage Index, CD=Center Of  Distribution

TD=Tomlinson distance rating--the higher the better. (*) indicates small sample.

3. Globalize... Scratched.

4. Anees... (February 5, DP 9-10-19-0-6 (44) DI=1.84 CD=0.36 TD=420*)...Nakatani...It looks as though that BC Juvy jinx will continue. He never got back to that level he achieved in the Juvenile at Gulfstream. The difference in tracks won't help him here. He is a closer and if he gets any help at all, it will be all of the speed in this field. To beat all, rumors swirling that he was equipped with front-wraps for his work earlier this week. That should help his price immensely, though that is the one thing about him that didn't need help. Beautifully bred but would have to be labeled a disappointment at this stage. Probably, unless a miracle occurs, at least 4-5 lengths too slow.

5. Aptitude...(March 27,  DP 10-15-19-0-0 (44)  DI=2.58 CD=0.74 TD=425)..Solis...Bobby made the rider switch naming the more experienced Solis here instead of Brice Blanc. That alone won't get it done though. He'll need a super-fast pace, which he is liable to get, and a clear path, which isn't so sure. Visually impressive in the Gotham, but when the BIG boy came to town, that late run didn't put as much of a dent into the lead. He'll have to run a career best just to make the super. Not out of the question, but a huge field to close through always compromises closer's chances here. If you're on or close to the lead turning for home, you are generally assured a piece. Trip will be key.

14f. Wheelaway...(March 2, DP 8-11-11-0-6 (36) DI=2.13 CD=0.42 TD=415*)...Migliore...Yet another without 2 year-old seasoning to cross the wire first. That should be enough to keep him from winning. It would be nice to see Kimmel get this--one day. Steadily improving though and one more step forward and he's in the photo. Hard to say whether he can sustain, but we know his connections are capable. An extra 1/8 will suit him fine.

6. Hal's Hope...(March 23, Dp 7-5-12-6-0 (30) DI=1.50 CD=0.43 TD=345)...Velez...Left for dead after he burned his heels at Keeneland. Sparkling work says he is still on his game though and at Churchill at that! Would not be a stretch to see him with a fighting chance in deep stretch. I've left one Florida Derby winner off of my tickets in recent years and he won and paid $51. I won't be overlooking the orchid winners any time soon. He figures to be a nice juicy price as well. Again, front running isn't the way to go here, but after quitting and saving himself at Keeneland, I'm thinking he might prove pretty difficult here.  That is, if that's what really happened.

1. Trippi...(March 16, DP 9-2-6-0-1 (18) DI=3.50 CD=1.00 TD=295)...Chavez...Oh, I would love to see him win this but let's face it, he won't. He's not fast enough at this distance, or 9 furlongs for that matter...at least, not yet. He's got all of the promise in the world. I just hope this isn't too much for him and ruins him from here on. I have to admit, I was shocked when he held on in the Flamingo. This ain't no Flamingo field though. This is "THE DERBY" and he'll likely use his speed much too early to have a shot at a win. If, somehow, he happens to hang on, I'll kiss the hallowed ground the next time I visit Churchill.  Pletcher sent him out for a 59:3 work on Sunday feeling that he didn't get much out of his previous drill. At least we know he can handle the track which is a huge part of the battle.

15f. Deputy Warlock...(January 27, DP 10-2-7-0-1 (20) DI=3.44 CD=1.00 TD=335*)...Guidry...Ran his best in the Blue Grass while swooping 7-wide and closing on a track that is nearly impossible to close on. The Spiral was also impressive as he closed from 21 lengths out early to finish 4th beaten just over 4. Difficult to close through a field this size but he is a stone cold closer which should help him against these. A step up is not out of the question here and doing so would put him in the trifecta zone.

7. Captain Steve...(March 1, DP 4-5-7-0-0 (16) DI=3.57 CD=0.81 TD=330)...Albarado...Ran the two best races of his career in Kentucky, both here, and at Keeneland. Maybe he likes it here. Pedigree suggests though that this is beyond his preferred distance. Plus, despite the fact that he has remained close in all of his efforts this year, he seems to be backsliding a bit instead of approaching that top he had here in the Jockey Club last year. Like Anees, he appears 4-5 lengths too slow.

8. War Chant...(May 22, DP 9-12-22-1-0 (44) DI=2.67 CD=0.66 TD=380)...Could be the BIGgest question mark in the field. On one hand, he's green. Inexperienced as they come with only 4 races under his belt. That leaves room for rapid improvement though. One concern is mediocre works over the track. Drysdale is overly cautious as we have seen so this might be a forgivable point. Did he peak one race too early? Can he pair them up? A pair-up puts him close to glory. A tail-off puts him mid-pack.

9. More Than Ready...(April 4, DP 11-1-14-2-0 (28) DI=2.11 CD=0.75 TD=340)...Velasquez...The front-runners just keep on coming. It's hard to remember a Derby with this much front speed. Last year, he was the chosen one in New York and Kentucky after winning early, often, and shorter with regularity. Has won over this surface and in front of a huge crowd. Looked dead game in the Blue Grass despite supposedly not being able to handle the distance. Would not surprise me at all to see him close late. In fact, a major danger for the tri I would imagine.

10. The Deputy...(March 29, DP1-0-2-1-0 (4) DI=1.00 CD=0.25 TD=360*)...McCarron...I'd be hard-pressed to say I've ever felt more confident of my chances of picking a winner in this race than I do with this guy. Pure professional and he loves the track--apparently. His style will keep him where he should be and I trust no one more than McCarron in this long stretch. His effort off the layoff against FP was tremendous. He went on to solidify that showing in the SA Derby. With 4 weeks off and by all accounts, the darling of  Churchill in the mornings,  it looks like he is sitting on one hell of an effort. Just a matter of time before Sahadi gets her due. Maybe just hours.

2. China Visit...(March 18, DP 7-5-18-0-0 (30) DI=2.33 CD=0.63 TD=340)...Dettori...Your guess is as good as mine here. Such is the danger of Godolphin. The UAE Derby wasn't exactly a crowning affair. Wasn't expected to be. That plus a couple of trials don't a Derby make. Would anyone say they were shocked though if they pulled it off? Not I. Getting closer, but still no (GULP) Cigar.

1a. Commendable...(April 13, DP 17-11-14-0-0 (42) DI=5.00 CD=1.07 TD=325)...Prado...It's not likely he'll be a factor here. Has worked well, but will need several more races to determine his value. Surprising that Prado is left at this stop.

11. Graeme Hall...(February 15, DP 7-4-7-0-0 (18) DI=4.14 CD=1.00 TD=330)...Sellers...Dangerous front-runner here. If there were less speed in this race, I'd be picking him in a major upset. As it is, I still think he is going to be a factor. One thing's for sure, he'll face much more pressure up front here than he did in Arkansas. I can't help feeling though that he has another solid effort on the way. This track could be his undoing though. Maybe best to wait until Pimlico where there tighter turns blah, blah, blah, and the speed favoring blah, blah, blah.

1c. Impeachment...(April 23, DP 4-0-8-2-0 (14) DI=1.33 CD=0.43 TD=335)...Perret...In a race laden with speed, like this one, you need a voice. A shout from the back of the pack that says, "I'm coming to get you"! Here's a guy that spotted the Arkansas Derby field 16 from the 14 post and after going 5-wide on the final turn nearly caught 'em all and finished 3rd, beaten only 4 lengths. He'll get similar fractions here and an extra 1/8 mile to make up those last few lengths. May be a bit of a long-shot for the win, but don't wake up surprised that he made the super, especially if Perret can find an inside hole to slide through. Of course, the fact that he is coupled will kill his price, but not his chances.

12. Fusaichi Pegasus...(April 12, DP..22-10-24-0-0 (56) DI=3.67 CD=0.96 TD=335) ...Desormeaux ...Flipping, falling, rearing, stalling. This isn't your grandfather's Kentucky Derby favorite. Or is it? He's done a little of it all over the last 9 days. Through it all Neil Drysdale insists it's just that he's so full of himself and feeling over-exuberant. Is this what you plunge at  8-5 on in front of 140,000 partly to mostly inebriated people? I don't. But I expect plenty will. By all reports, he looks like $4M up close. There are many reasons why he can't win here, and only one why he can. For if he overcomes everything, including himself, he'll finally lay claim to the "Superhorse" title we've been so eager to bestow since Spectacular Bid was stepping on safety pins. He's got a lot more to prove though. He's just a baby. He'll be forgiven if he doesn't win here,  not soon forgotten if he does.

13. Exchange Rate...(April 3, DP 1-6-8-0-5 (20) DI=1.22 CD=-0.10TD= 370)...Borel...Anything could happen here. An explosion to a contending position, or an implosion to last. At his best on the FG surface, he is competitive, anywhere else, a spectator. Very solid works here though and no prior races on this surface. Not easily discounted.

1x. High Yield...(March 30, DP 8-3-11-3-1 (25) DI=1.74 CD=0.54 TD=360)...Day...What goes up must come down? Not if you ask this guy. He's been going up since the Hollywood Futurity and hasn't come down yet. The 46:3 here last Monday was evil. There are a lot of positives here and very little negatives to get in the way. If not for that head loss in the Florida Derby he'd be riding a 3 race Grade 1 win streak. Dualie, with Lukas and Day. Hmmm. Only possible flaw is the fact that he will be heavily played. Still, ignore anywhere in the money at your own risk, though outside post will make that easier considering he likes the rail and the lead. You'll note that Captain Steve beat him by 10 here late last year. Probably safe to say that this one has progressed past Captain Steve--at least until now.

2b. Curule...(March 8, DP 5-4-12-2-3  (26) DI=1.36 CD=0.23 TD=350*)...St.Julien...So this is all I need. A son of Go For Gin foiling my Derby Day by trampling my trifecta. Shoo! Shoo! Get outta  here! In all seriousness, his dosage profile looks good. It's a shame he didn't get the proper training leading up to this.

16f. Ronton...(February 25, DP 7-9-9-0-1 (26) DI=3.73 CD=0.81 TD=325)...Blanc...Though my wife would be happy for the dam if he won, it looks as though the "Judy" angle will have to wait at least one more year. Cerin must miss Archer City Slew terribly.

    It's just too hard for me to go against The Deputy here. He is set up to run a BIG one and he has worked well over this track. McCarron is the best at crunch-time. There's no reason he won't have a say in this coming down to the wire. A smallish horse in a huge field usually is not a great combo, but he has faced 20, and this in his 2 year-old year. Very few wrinkles here. Perhaps we'll be able to get 5-1.

    I'm going to step out on a limb here and use More Than Ready in the exacta. He has good 2 year-old experience, including a win here last year on Derby Day. His effort in the Blue Grass was most impressive. Another like that and he'll be right there. Likely a decent price as well. Left for dead as a sprinter last fall. I think maybe he can make the tri at the very least. Morning line of 10-1 would be sweet.

    It won't shock anyone if Fusaichi Pegasus wins by 10. Me included. I just think he'll be undone by one or more of the things that normally undo colts who don't have the necessary experience to handle this. Figure 8/5 or 9/5. If he wins, don't plan on getting that price again any time soon.

    I'm expecting War Chant to run huge here. Will it be enough? Time will tell. Lack of 2 year-old experience again the only reason I'm not playing him higher. 6 or 7-1--maybe.

    We have to get a closer in all of this mess. Aptitude looks strongest in that suit.

    Finally, this race wouldn't be complete if Baffert weren't involved somehow. Captain Steve ran his career best race over this track last fall. If he gets close to that effort he could be a factor here.

1. The Deputy

2. More Than Ready

3. Fusaichi Pegasus

4. War Chant

5. Aptitude

6. Captain Steve

    What I'll play: Trifectas--Keying The Deputy in the first and second spot with the other 5 over and under, plus I might throw in Wheelaway and Graeme Hall  under if I get bold. Exactas--The Deputy with More Than Ready and War Chant back and forth. The Deputy over all 5, larger amount over the wonder horse. Win--The Deputy if better than 9/2. Saver on Fusaichi at 9/5 or better assuming he makes the gate without major incident.

Best of luck everyone, and enjoy Derby Day 2K.