Saturday February 5, 2000

The 42nd Donn Handicap

 

1. Stephen Got Even...Sellers/115...Tailed off a bit towards the end of the year. Possibly the slop in the JCGC can excuse a part. Ran his best of the year just before in the Woodward. I have to admit, I was high on him last year. I picked him in the Derby here. I jumped ship like a diseased rat when I saw his inexcusable odds in Louisville though. And he continued to suck up cash like a newly tuned Hoover® afterwards. Talk about a turn-off! But now, he's another year older, he proved in the Woodward he was decent, and he's burning up Hialeah in the A.M. He just might be a major factor here, but I can't see him winning. Nick only winning 12% off the break.

2. First American...Bailey/112...Talk about a race ruining the rest of the year. The Derby did him in last year as he was erratic at best thereafter. Awful at worst though. Has Caramori got him straightened out? He does get Bailey which helps immensely. He won the Flamingo in South Florida early last year. It would likely take a repeat of that effort just to get close here, Jerry or not.

3. Behrens...Chavez/121...If you read Andy Beyer's column this week, you know that this is/could be a pivotal race for this guy and H.J. Bond. If Behrens wins, or at least comes close, the monkey says bye-bye. If not, eyebrows will arch and rumors are likely to fly. The bizarre Breeders' Cup day proceedings allegedly at the hands of Michael Dickinson are still fresh on a lot of people's minds. He's been working like the champ he's expected to be at Payson. That is always a plus on this track. Of course, he was working just as well before the Breeders' Cup too.

4. Salty Sea...Castellano/113...Would have to improve by leaps and bounds to be a factor here. 

5. Pleasant Breeze...Chavez/112...Might not even go as Bond had stated one of his stars would be scratched. I have a hard time believing that he'd scrub Behrens. However, this guy comes with his own certificate of merit. Just missed in the Clark on a wet Churchill strip. Right before that, an ultra-game performance in the Meadowlands Cup. The only one outworking him at Payson; Behrens.

6. Call Me Mr. Vain...Migliore/112...Hard to imagine him winning this. Though, he shows some signs of life that might be dangerous here. Set some very strong fractions in last summer's Iselin before getting caught by Frisk Me Now and losing by less than a length. His next race though, he was soundly beaten and went to the bench for five months. His comeback race here was as strong as you could have asked and if he moves forward from that effort he'll be dangerous on the front. Likely to be quite a long price as well. Migliore wins 21% with  front-runners. Can he steal this at this level?

7. Stone Bridge...Douglas/111...Was the beaten favorite last out in a $36k allowance and Cesare winning 37% under those circumstances. Other than that, I can't find anything to like about his chances here. 

8. Golden Missile...Prado/114...Almost blew up the Breeders' Cup Classic at 75-1 here in November as he was just a head out in deep stretch after a 5-wide move before finally succumbing late. He still was within 1 1/2 when the dust cleared. Will he need this off the layoff? He has run well off the shelf before, but in lesser spots and on the grass. Stronach owns and this will be Orseno's first start at the boss' new track this year. He gets a weight break from the top dogs. I'd feel better if he had a tightener under his belt. As it is, he could be a major player here. He won't be ignored this time though.

9. Sir Bear...Santos/116...All downhill after the Met Mile win last year. Especially at this distance as he was beaten a combined 37 lengths in 39 furlong efforts. I have to believe that his age might have caught up to him just as he was getting good. Ziadie tried to put a little stamina in him with the last couple of works, but he hasn't raced since October. Tough spot for a come-backer.

10. Almutawakel...Velasquez/120...Hennig is on fire here and lookie what gets dumped in his lap! None other than the Dubai Cup winner. Still has yet to win in the U.S. though you get the feeling it's just a matter of time. He drops a few pounds here and turns back to what appears a more favorable distance. The Woodward was his best U.S. effort and it was at this distance. Though Hennig winning just 7% in his first start with a new animal, he will have the edge that training at Payson can give you. Strong possibilities here.

11. Best Of Luck...Smith/114...7-4-2-0 at the distance but only 5-1-0-2 at Gulfstream. Probably better suited to lesser events though he is catching the BIG boys all coming off of layoffs. Don't ever put anything past Jerkens as he didn't get his nickname for nothing. He'll have to make a drastic improvement from his first start of the year to be close here. Certainly not out of the question. Smith and Jerkens winning 37% from 27 starts together.

12. Rock And Roll...Castillo/115...Stretches out here after losing ground late in his previous few at shorter distances. Not exactly a recipe for success if you ask me, but then, nobody did! Certainly not Bill Mott who I confess, probably has forgotten more than I'll ever know about training a horse. Jenny Craig and Madeleine Paulson own and likely, helped choose this spot. ;-)

 

      I'm afraid of all of these guys coming off of layoffs. The lesser of the evils appears to be Golden Missile. He could be poised to make some noise in this division this year. He'll sit just off the pace and make his move on the turn.

     I'll use Almutawakel here as well. I'm hoping the shorter distance gets him closer to the pot here.

     Tough to read Behrens and his year-end swoon. Are things right now? We'll know soon enough.

1. Golden Missile

2. Almutawakel

3. Behrens

Best of luck everyone!

10th Gulfstream 2-5-2000 42nd Donn H'cap 1:48 2/5
2 STEPHEN GOT EVEN 115 SELLERS S J 8.60 4.60 3.20
7 GOLDEN MISSILE 114 PRADO E S 4.60 3.00
1 BEHRENS 121 CHAVEZ J F 2.80
$2 EXACTA 2-7 PAID $38.20
$2 TRIFECTA 2-7-1 PAID $108.80

 

© 2000 bBra

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