Saturday April 8, 2000

The 69th Flamingo Stakes
11th @ Gulfstream

2. Mr. Livingston...Velez/119...Cut his teeth on the grass and has performed well there too, usually while running loose on the front. It is that ability which should keep Trippi honest--or will it? His last fast dirt effort he went :47 for the 1/2. That was on this track as well and at 1 1/16. Good works over at Calder. His pedigree, and for the most part, efforts scream for turf. It'll be interesting to see how he fares here.

3. Skip A Grade...Pitty/119...Can probably be forgiven his Tampa Bay Derby effort as he got into a ton of trouble quick and was never able to recover. Blinkers on this time to try and ease any remaining ill-effects of that train wreck and get him back on the right track. Nice works at Payson which helps here. Pitty winning 18% for the meet.

4. Bravo Bull...Homeister/119...Just broke his maiden at 7th asking. Hey, anything's possible--right?

5. Zammie...Madrid/122...Just ran his career best in Ocala. Olivares 0 for 9 this meet, and 6% for the year.

6. Fajardo...Toribio/119...Trounced in the Gotham as the bottom fell out after 6f while he circled wide. Believe it or not, that might have set him up well for this. He'll have to save ground though, and he won't get those sloth-like fractions here. A lot to ask. White 16-4-4-1 for the meet.

7. American Bullet...Douglas/119...Off since the Fountain and it might be safe to assume all was not well after that effort. He was bumped at the start and never really accomplished anything passing tired horses while being beaten 7 in his first route effort. 49 days off brings us here. I just don't get the feeling he can get there from here. Gomez 0 for 9 this meet and winning 5% for the year.

8. Kombat Kat...Henry/119...Has performed well in his last 4 including two 1 1/16 efforts. That Tampa surface must be pretty quirky though. Either that, or he doesn't look fast enough to be a factor. Standridge on fire this year winning 27% with a positive ROI. Graded Stakes not his specialty though. (0 for 7) He'll have to be considered, but only for a minor placing I would think.

9. Perfect Cat...Davis/119...Likely to favor the added distance as he ran well at 9 furlongs in January on this track. It was sloppy but he has plenty of dry track experience at two turns. Eye-popping work at Payson last Saturday tells me he's fit and ready. Likely to be knocking on the favorite's door come the 1/8 pole. While he might not be suited to a mile and a quarter, 9 panels should be just fine.

10. Malagot...Velez/119...Has performed nicely in 2 of his 3 two-turn allowances at Gulfstream. He'll have to take a step up to get his picture taken here I would imagine. The bottom half of the tri and/or super probably are within reach though. Nice works since the last win which was accomplished against weaker. Post isn't kind. On the fence here.

11. Tahkodha Hills...Castellano/122...Tired badly late in the Florida Derby which doesn't bode well here. A faster pace, which he's likely to get, will help, but the distance could be a hurdle. Ziadie winning 18% in graded stakes with a positive ROI. Nice works too. Likely to have a lot to do late when you factor in the post position.

      If ever a race was a slave to pace, it's this one. There's no telling how it will play with the favorite likely very close to or on the lead. Therefore, I have to go with Perfect Cat on top here. I think he'll be blowing through the stretch like a brown tornado, provided of course that the track is still playing fair which I expect it will be.

     It's been fun watching Trippi start his career and I can't reiterate enough how fabulous he looked when he first stepped on the track in January. What a thrill after when he won the way he did. I'd love to see him win here but I have to look at myself in the mirror each morning and I just can't get over my belief that he'll be tripping over his pedigree with a furlong left. If I'm wrong and he wins for fun, sue me! I'll use him in 3rd as well.

     I'll use Mr. Livingston too in the 2nd spot just in case. He might make it past Trippi if he can get some sane fractions.

     I think the post will hurt  Malagot but will use him as well..

1. Perfect Cat

2. Trippi

3. Mr. Livingston

    Anees...I liked the nice even performance off the layoff and he should step up a bit here. He ran against the MO on Breeders' Cup Day at Gulfstream and won by 2 1/2. Once he gets close to a repeat of that performance, look out! Hassinger in an awful slump here. 0 for 32 for the meet as of Friday. Ooof! Still he has a nice positive ROI in graded stakes, thanks to this guy. Anees is a serious contender after today!

    Captain Steve...Seems to be rounding back into form--finally. If he gets back to Louisville, and it looks as though he will, he'll be racing on a track that he has already raced on. A track that was home to his career best performance, and a win. Babbling Bob's numbers are off a bit this year. Still, 20% ain't hay. Solidifies travel plans here.