Saturday March 11, 2000

The 49th Florida Derby
All carry 122-12th Race @ Gulfstream

2. Scottish Halo...Chavez...It'll be interesting to see how that grass race against his elders sets him up here. It wasn't that great of an effort so it's hard to tell if Rizzo has him tight enough for this. He has won 3 of 12 turf-to-dirt but it's a good bet they weren't stepping up like here. A ton of early speed could set it up for him. Prefer him later though. Next start, he could be the one. It would be nice to see Chavez win this.

3. Postponed...Santos...He's not certain to go as Scotty would prefer an allowance on the under-card but is unsure if it will fill. It's hard to like his chances if even his conditioner would prefer a softer spot. Still, stranger things have happened. I just think this might be a bit of a stretch. High scratch probability.

4. Hal's Hope...Velez...Had no choice but to chase High Yield all the way in the Fountain as he got trapped outside most of the way. Rose says he bled there so he'll get first-time lasix here. Didn't throw in his customary 46 and change work here and that is a concern. He might be ready to regress a bit as the last two have been tough efforts. Sentimentally, it would be nice to see Rose win here. Realistically, it probably won't happen. Don't be surprised if he makes the Super though.

5. Elite Mercedes...Bailey...A better post position today should help him greatly as he ran a nice even effort while chasing the speed in the Fountain from the outside. Definitely NOT the place to be on this track--at least then it wasn't. A move forward here in his second start off the layoff puts him squarely in the picture. Walden winning 18% in his second start. Strong works at Payson which certainly won't hurt. His daddy won this race 11 years ago if you believe in that sort of thing. Why not?

6. Bare Outline...Nakatani...Won the Unbridled here on Fountain day on the front end. Zito wasn't planning to run him here of course, but with the injury to top-gun Greenwood Lake, he had to go to the bench. Figures to be on the front again here as do several others. That and the fact that this is his fourth race of the meet could work against him. Hard to like on top. Exotics not out of the reach though. Corey and Nick won 3 a few weeks ago when they teamed up here.

7. Hades...Migliore...Expect him to be forwardly placed. What else is new with this race. That bullet he fired at Hialeah on Tuesday looks very nice and he should move forward here. BUT, he gave it up late at Laurel in a slow final quarter after setting decent fractions. The pace will be hot here which will work to his disadvantage. Owner won with Unbridled's Song here a few years ago, and seems to have gained a lot from that experience. That won't carry this one over the line first though.

8. Settlement...Velasquez...Ran decently at the Spa last summer but hasn't been able to come close to those efforts as of late. Beaten 8+ lengths by Postponed two-back. Hennig 21% turf-to-dirt but I have an inkling he'll need more help here.

9. Deputy Warlock...Smith...McPeek says if the track is playing speed, he won't run here. Wasn't much of a factor in the Fountain but lousy outside post could be part of the reason for that. As bad as it looked, it was still as good as the Hawthorne effort and to see him right back where he left off should give his supporters hope. McPeek is 12% in graded stakes and although Smith has picked it up this meet, he and McPeek 0 for 2. Must step WAY up here. Could be promising down the road if he can't get there yet. 

10. Tahkoda Hills...Coa...Needs to get back to the What A Pleasure effort to be effective here. It seems a tall order though as he sat off a slow pace there. He's not gonna get that here. He closed earlier in maiden events but recent style is to sit closer. He's going to have a lot to do,  late. Ziadie and Coa hitting on a stellar 31% win rate, 60% in the money, and a positive ROI as well. Have the feeling he's tailing off a bit.

      A lot of factors go into picking this race. Annually, for me anyway, The Florida Derby is the toughest of all. Why? I don't know. Overall, I am ahead at this meet. That's not TOO unusual. But this race continually gives me fits.

      Eleven years ago I attended my second Florida Derby and was confounded when Mercedes Won won the damned thing. So this year I'll let his son, Elite Mercedes, carry my clubs. He'll likely have much better position and pressing a pretty hot pace. I'm looking for him to bust through that Rhythm Stakes effort here on Breeder's Cup weekend.

      Wayne has kept High Yield in one piece and flourishing through quite an ambitious campaign. It would be no disgrace to finish 2nd here.

      Scottish Halo looks interesting in this speed-burdened field.

1. Elite Mercedes

2. High Yield

3. Scottish Halo

RESULTS
12th @ GP 49th Florida Derby 3-11-00 1:51.49
4 Hal's Hope 15.80 5.20 3.60
1 High Yield 3.00 2.40
10 Tahkodha Hills 8.60
$2 Exacta 4-1 34.20
$2 Superfecta 4-1-10-8 10,262.20
$2 Trifecta 4-1-10 593.60

The 15th Swale Stakes

5th Race @ Gulfstream

       Trippi caught my eye immediately when he stepped on to the track for his first start on January 29th. The $65,000 purchase was most impressive while breaking last and still setting them all in a hand-ride by Jerry Bailey. In his second start (FOY Day), he looked a bit uninterested before the race. I thought he might run up the track, but instead, he blitzed an allowance field by 9+. Again, in a hand-ride. He won't have it quite so easy today as there is speed lapped on both sides of him. He looks to be mighty special though. It'll be interesting to note his odds vs. these. 

       Ultimate Warrior will attack from the outside which normally isn't great here. He'll have no choice but to rush up early as the field is packed with speed. No win from outside the 4-hole showing in his pp's. All of those at sprint distances and no races at 7 furlongs either.

       Personal First won the Ellis Park Juvenile at this distance in the slop. An effort that would likely get him beat by 6 or more here. Can he bounce back from a very dull Fountain effort? Paulus only 8% Route-to-Sprint.