Saturday February 19, 2000

The 54th Fountain Of Youth Stakes

2. Un Fino Vino...Chavez/112...Return was a winning one after superb effort in the all-important Remsen. Drops significant poundage too. He'll be close to the front, which looks like it could be a bit crowded. 34:4 here on Wednesday looks nice. I won't be surprised to see him in the money. 2nd off the layoff might help as well.

3. Greenwood Lake...Nakatani/122...Abundance of early speed likely to work in his favor here. Nakatani flies in for the mount in a bit of a puzzling move. He likes to come from way back. Hates good position early. Horses like this seem to hunt Nicky out and beg him to train them. As it is, he has a good shot here. Only questions are traffic and pace, to which he is a slave.

4. High Yield...Day/117...String of graded efforts has cost him a few photo ops. Ran strong last out despite the loss. Day gets the mount here as Nakatani pencils-in Greenwood Lake. That in itself confusing. This will be his 10th start without any sort of rest. The work off the plane was most impressive though, signaling his readiness to run a top effort over a surface that has been playing anything but consistent. The Juvenile effort here was good. But only good enough for third after Bailey placed him 4-wide on the final turn. Is this too far?

5. Personal First...St Julien/117...Didn't really pass the test in the Holy Bull as he faded late. That kind of effort won't get him in the money here. He'll have to find that extra ooomph to get him over the top. He has a reasonable amount of tactical speed which should keep him out of trouble. Whether or not he can muster up enough to be a factor late would be the question.

6. American Bullet...Douglas/112...His first shot at the distance so the jury's still out on his two-turn ability. He looked to be advancing late in his sprints, but that's not always a positive when they stretch out. Tomlinson "Intermediate" number suggests that this should be within his scope. Though it's not really a ringing endorsement. Gomez 1 of 11 in graded races and Douglas and Gomez 1 for 7.

7. Rupert Herd...Sellers/112...Will sit off the pace and make a late move. I kind of doubt he'll be a factor here. Azpurua a dismal 3% for the meet and 0 for 15 in graded efforts.

8. Hal's Hope...Velez/117...The darling of the race figures to collect more attention at the windows off of that 40-1 score in the Holy Bull. I chose him third then, I'll probably use him again here. Threw another 46 and change work at Calder last Saturday so he is still in the pink. Most will probably think he'll bounce here. I just don't know. It's tough to tell with these rapidly improving kids. One thing for sure though, a repeat of the Holy Bull wins this, or at least gets him close. Capable.

9. Polish Miner...Velasquez/114...A little concerned about the post position as it is a quick run to the turn and the amount of speed in here could hang him out to dry. There's that Remsen again and a strong effort to boot. 2-1-1 both at the distance and track. Seems to like the overland route as 5 of his last 6 included at least a 3-wide move. He may not have a choice here, especially on the first turn. That could very well be the key to his effort here.

10. Elite Mercedes...Bailey/117...Was the track that souped-up on 11/7? He ran a race here that day in the Rhythm stakes that could easily ace this field. He doesn't pick up weight. He's been working like a maniac at Payson. Though Bailey doesn't seem to be lighting the world on fire, he's still winning 21%. And he and Walden have won 29% from 35 starts. In his first start with a horse, Walden is winning 19%. A lot to like here, in spite of the post-position. He has good early speed which will come in handy for coping with that first turn.

11. Deputy Warlock...Smith/119...Hawthorne juvenile winner seems weighted incorrectly though he has won two stakes, neither graded though. McPeek says that he wasn't right last year but that he should show his true colors this year. My guess is it would take a pretty stout improvement to make noise here. 98 days off might leave less in the tank than he needs to compete. Wait for next race.

      Expect a load of pace in this race which SHOULD set it up for closers. I'm not convinced it will be all that fast up front though as some connections have already said they will back off the pace. Probably an effort to get their charges to relax and rate.

      Given that, I'm using Elite Mercedes on top here. True, that layoff looks imposing, as does the post. But he has Walden and Bailey, not to mention the fact that his dad won the Florida Derby here. Good effort over this track in November.  Smart works at Payson don't hurt, and he could be ready to throw his hat in the ring.

     I'll use Hal's Hope here for 2nd. I like the fact that he is still cranking out those fast works. A bit concerned that he has to have the lead, which could hurt him here. If he gets clear though, it could be all over turning for home.

     Is Pat Day the right jockey for High Yield? We'll find out. The breeding says distances shouldn't be a problem. So far, they have been. Tough to figure.

     I'll also use Un Fino Vino and Greenwood Lake in minor positions.

1. Elite Mercedes

2. Hal's Hope

3. High Yield