Saturday October 14, 2000

The 82nd Jockey Club Gold Cup
10th @ Belmont
All carry 126

1. Albert The Great...Chavez...You had better best believe Chavez won't be blazing the half in 44:1 here. I would imagine Zito let him have it pretty good after the Woodward where he did just that. Pretty good effort two back at 10f where he just got caught at the wire by Unshaded in the Travers. He put in a monster work here on the 9th so the pilot light is still burning. Probably will be a decent price in this field as well. Worth taking a chance, especially if you think the BIG 2 are in decline.

2. Agol Lack...McCarron...Hard to gauge his ability or probability here. Looks like dirt breeding from where I sit though and who better to guide a longshot home than McCarron who stole the BIG one at Keeneland on Friday. Hard to dismiss Fabre no matter what he enters. Group 3 performer finished a good 2nd to Slickly back in June. Timeform numbers while on the improve, don't look especially enticing. Toss-up.

3. Vision And Verse...Castillo...A lot of breaks in his pp's which always concerns me, especially off of an effort like his last. Awfully quick turn around also which leads me to believe that Mott is fishing. I don't think this one is going to get any bites today though.

4. Lemon Drop Kid...Prado...He's done some good work this year and is bidding for his 5th in a row. Recent efforts suggest the end of the streak is near though. While winning here, no matter how, would send him to Louisville as the probable 1st or 2nd choice, it's my belief that he'll be lucky to get the win here, and has little chance in Louisville of doing the same. 9-5-2-1 at Belmont. One too many races I think which might leave HOY door ajar for Derby winner.

5. Behrens...Bailey...Here's another that appears over the top. He ran well last time against LDK, but had the deck stacked in his favor with slow time. He was on the lead or within 1/2 length most of the way but was still unable to get win. Don't get me wrong, I like this horse,  but have feeling that his day has passed. Still could be good enough for minor showing in exotics.

4. Gander...Velasquez...Hard to envision him in the top 3. He's a nice performer, but could be lacking when facing these. One more reason to discount/downgrade Woodward top 2.

6. Skimming...Desormeaux...I always discount west coasters first time here (except for Riboletta), and that strategy paid off last time with this one. Frankel has stated that he will send him. That strategy worked on the left coast, but have my doubts that he'll be able to employ that here given the company and their styles.

       Albert The Great should be sitting a couple of lengths behind the leaders, and I think he'll have enough left to take this, provided he takes to that style.

       Agol Lack cannot be ignored. I'll use him in 2nd in an effort to juice up the price.

       Hard to choose between them, but will have to give nod to Lemon Drop Kid for 3rd. Behrens could just as easily occupy this spot

                 1. Albert The Great

2. Agol Lack

3. Lemon Drop Kid

Best of luck everyone!