Saturday August 19, 2000

The 18th Arlington Million
9th @ Arlington
All carry 126

2. Chester House...Bailey...Woke up in the Eddie Read after some mediocre efforts in some pretty good dirt races. Could be circling back to his Breeders' Cup form which would give him a shot here I would guess. Yes, that was on dirt, but his efforts on dirt and turf more or less mirror each other. Frankel having a career year so this might be the time that the 0 for 11 snide in this race comes to an end. Poised for a BIG effort. Mr. Bailey brings his 28% to the table and is huge in BIG grass races. His best could win this.  Might we get a fair price here?

3. Slickly...Dettori...Oh boy! How do we rate this one? Finished just 2+ lengths in back of Dubai Millennium in the Prix Jacques le Marois last summer at Deauville. Won the Group 1 Paris last summer at Longchamp. Finished a respectable 4th to Montjeu earlier last summer in the 12 panel Prix du Jockey Club after running rank early in the race. He's two for two at 1 1/4 including his only start this year, at Longchamp in the Group 3 La Coupe. Obviously the class of the race, but it's impossible to tell how he will take to the firm going. By all accounts, Arlington should be firm for this. Interesting to note: Suroor 0 for 7 when shipping to the U.S. Frankie makes the trip though and you have to think Godolphin wants this quite badly. Easy to love, but probably not much value. 

4. Manndar...Nakatani...How long can his streak continue? His win in the Woodford was not ultra-impressive. In the Manhattan he was most impressive--at this distance. In fact, he's 5-3-0-2 at 10 furlongs. Now he's had a little time off to freshen which may or may not be a good thing. The Manhattan was a career best, but he has run that number two other times in his past according to Thorograph. There's no reason to suggest he can't duplicate it here. Greely winning only 12% from 31-90 days off, but with a positive ROI. He logged some nice works over the Del Mar weeds on his return to the west coast. Looks like a player to me.

5. Bienmado...Desormeaux...Two very impressive efforts for this one in SoCal including a BIG new stakes record in the Jim Murray of 1:58:4. He followed that by following his sire into the winner's circle in the Sunset at 1 1/2. Ran only four times last year, but all top efforts in grouped affairs in England,  France, and Canada. He really seems to have found himself on that hard California turf though. With the going firm here as well, can we expect the same? He'll be awfully tough if he can duplicate the last two, but that won't be easy vs. this group. Desormeaux is 0 for 5 in this race. Gonzalez winning 27% for the year with a positive ROI.

6. Running Stag...Sellers...Might have needed the time off after the Brooklyn but he didn't get to show it as he had a bit of traffic trouble in the Whitney. His last turf effort was a good one--in the Group 1 Hong Kong Cup last year. It's worth noting though that his lifetime turf record, well, let's just say he likes to finish 2nd six times more than he likes to win. 19-1-6-1 Not too encouraging for the win, but not out of the question for exotics. 9-1-4-1 for the distance. I see a pattern here. Mitchell has only six starts for the year, and he's won two of them. His price will be a plus if you can get past that win record.

7. Mula Gula...Guidry...At first glance a throw-out. Though he did beat Manndar last year in the Oak Tree Derby, but only by 1 1/2. That was Manndar's U.S. debut and he lugged in through the stretch. There's no shortage of early/mid speed in here and this guy is no exception. It'll likely burn him out before the others though. He's never attempted, but the distance shouldn't be a problem. His running style probably will be. Other than that Oak Tree Derby score, best efforts have come on the dirt.

          A small but competitive field for the 18th running. It might be easier to pick the last place horse rather than the winner.

          Slickly didn't make the trip for nothing! I'll take a flyer that he can take to the firm going. If he does, he could win by 5. If not, he could be out. Anything over 2-1 would be a gift here I think.

          It could be a coronation for Manndar if he scores again here. Not out of the question by any means.

          I expect Chester House to unleash a powerful late kick that could snare them all. Bailey doesn't hurt.

          Honorable mention to Running Stag who looks to be circling to his best.

1. Slickly

2. Manndar

3. Chester House