Saturday August 26, 2000

The 10th Pacific Classic
8th @ Del Mar

 

1. River Keen...124/Espinoza...Completely blew up in the San Diego, only his 2nd start of the year, when he finished 20 lengths back as the favorite. It's hard to say just what went wrong, or where as Baffert had put him through his normal blistering works before, and since. The fact that he was wide in both turns might have had something to do with it. Still, a better showing was obviously anticipated. Baffert winning 31% and he and Espinoza wining 27% with a positive ROI from 74 starts (as of Thursday). The Bel Air effort was to be expected off of the 8 month break, but the San Diego has to have the camp guessing. He finished 2nd in this spot last year but the question remains: Is the 8 year-old done?

2. General Challenge...124/Nakatani...Jekyll or Hyde? Hard to say. Performed admirably, though not winning, off the shelf in the Hollywood Gold Cup. Now another 6 week break and the typical Baffert works land him here. I've never been a gigantic fan of his mostly because of his inability to score outside of
California. We won't have to worry about that here though as he won this last year in what remains his only race over this track. That race was a career best as well so if you're looking for angles you can't get better
than that. Will Baffert schedule a charter to Louisville if he can win this? It's my belief that the stars are aligned perfectly for a win in this spot. Baffert and Nakatani combining for 29% wins from 79 starts.

3. Euchre...124/Flores...Frankel brings in the Bel Air winner on a tremendous streak. Bobby is definitely on fire this year and seemingly can do nothing wrong while winning coast-to-coast. A career best for him in the Bel Air which sometimes can spell a bounce. But he's only 4 and he's had some decent, though unspectacular works since. It might be asking a lot, but Bobby is delivering a lot right now (36% winners at the meet). A lot of breaks in the pp line is my only worry. How much did the Bel Air take out of him?

4. Tiznow...117/McCarron...McCarron picks up the mount on this rapidly improving 3 year-old. He broke his maiden 3rd out by more than 8. Next, he beat Haskell winner Dixie Union (see Travers Stakes) in the Affirmed, then came right back in the Swaps and after being trapped late, finished 2nd to Captain Steve. He's sure to have gotten a lot out of that and now has a full month off to prepare for this. Two bullets since and here we are. Breeding suggests distance won't be a problem here.

5. Skimming...124/Gomez...Was a minor player in France and Great Britain last year and early this year, then he ships over and hasn't missed the money since. Last out he ran out of his skin in the San Diego and shamed the field by 8. Just prior, he finished 2nd to Sir Bear in the Cornhusker at Prairie Meadows holding off Ecton Park by 3/4. Last was a career best and off of only a 20 day break it might be time for a regression. Again though, you've got Frankel in his corner so no surprise if he can weave his magic. Two ordinary works since.

6. Ecton Park...124/Desormeaux...One of three millionaires in the race but hasn't really lived up to early promise he showed at Gulfstream and the Fairgrounds early in his 3 year-old campaign. Sure he came back and won the Super Derby as well as the Jim Dandy, but those two efforts seem to have tapped him out since. He has by no means performed terribly, it just seems he can't get over the hump and into consistently winning ways. Seven weeks off and he does run well fresh, but kind of a tough spot to improve while coming off the break. Breeding is spectacular though he is just 5-1-0-0 at the distance, that lone win being the Super Derby. Impossible to gauge how he'll take to the track but if he does, he could be very tough.

7. Forty One Carats...124/Delahoussaye...Looked like a monster while blitzing a $37K overnight field at Calder two back, then promptly took it on the chin by 13 in the San Diego. Apprently the public bit as they sent him off at just under 3-1 at Del Mar then watched as their tickets went up in smoke. Hard to find an excuse for that effort, other than a bounce. He did win the Pegasus last year, holding on while Unbridled Jet tried to shoot him down. He then tanked at Churchill in the Clark by 23. Obviously, he has very high peaks, and very low valleys. 

 

           Frankel is on a tremendous roll, and for that matter, so is Skimming. The breeding is phenomenal and though it looks as though he would be a monster on grass, winning this won't hurt his resume.

           General Challenge will face the favorite jinx. That in itself shouldn't do him in. Actually, I like his chances for the win here. I'm hoping to pump up the exotics price though.      

           Dependant upon how he takes to this surface, Ecton Park could be ready for a BIG effort.

           I'll use Forty One Carats in minor positions and hope for the best.

1. Skimming

2. General Challenge

3. Ecton Park

4. Forty One Carats

 

 

© 2000 bBra

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