Saturday May 20, 2000

The 125th Preakness
10th @ Pimlico

All carry 126

Key...TM=Tomlinson Mud Rating   TD=Tomlinson Distance Rating *=Small Sample

See explanation at: www.muddersandturfers.com

2. Snuck In...Asmussen...Interesting entry here. He's been running real well in the minors. BIG step up this time. He didn't look like he wanted any more after the 9f Arkansas Derby, though he did run well while wide. He might not have been fully cranked after the virus he came down with in late February either. If he has developed any at all in the 35 days since then, he could be dangerous for a piece of this. A better trip would almost ensure it and he has good position. Nice price should be had if you want to take a stab that FuPeg costs himself the race. TM=269 TD=320 

3. Impeachment...Perret...Let's be honest, he benefited from an insanely fast pace in the Derby. A pace that cooks anyone close to the lead with about 3/16 to go. He's probably not going to get a pace like that here, at least that insane, and that will compromise his chances. Now, he'll have a 1/16 less to work with; valuable real estate with his running style. Further, this will be his 8th race since the day after Christmas without a break. The breeding looks exquisite, but I'm guessing he's out here. He was set up perfectly in Louisville and the winner still left him far behind even though he ran a career best race. TM=350 TD=335

4. Red Bullet...Bailey...Tough to read this one. He looks to have a bright future but does he have enough to accomplish this at this stage of his career? Put up a valiant fight in the Wood but had no resistance late. Now we'll tack on another 1/16 and see how he likes it. 58:4 here last Saturday so that helps. What doesn't help is his likely price of 2nd choice. A call to be made after eyeballing the tote-board I expect. TM=390 TD=370

5. High Yield...Day...A couple of theories here. Either he doesn't like the track at Churchill, or he needs a rest. To be fair to Wayne, his races have been well spaced, and he ran awful on the Churchill surface once before. Some can handle it, some can't. If he bounces back here he should be one tough customer and will have a say in the outcome. Throw out the Derby and look at the possibility of him being very live here--at least for 2nd. TM=395 TD=360

6. Captain Steve...Albarado...Not too promising when you add a furlong and he's further back than any time except once, in the Juvenile. The good Captain peaked last year while most were just getting their legs. His have not developed as quickly this spring. Another with a lot, though well-spaced, of races under his belt. Some think he was bothered by Wheelaway. He was basically done at that point anyway. TM=310* TD=325

7. Fusaichi Pegasus...Desormeaux...Reports on Thursday of him acting up again. Until he screws it up on the track though, why care? I just hope he doesn't hurt himself, or someone else. It would be hard to envision a better trip than he got in Louisville. What matters most though, while a lot of the time the best horse doesn't win that race, this year would have to be an exception. He looks head and shoulders above the rest here. I've got this feeling we haven't even seen his "A" game yet. He could regress further I think, and still win this. Leave some in the tank, Kent! TM=355 TD=320

8. Hal's Hope...Velez...Tough draw for Hal, and the Roses. He looks for all the world like he hit his peak in the Florida Derby and that has knocked him out for awhile. This track could be conducive to a re-birth for him though. The pace will be respectable with him on top of it. Hasn't worked since the Derby and I'm not sure that is a positive sign. Caution urged, but don't be surprised if his presence is felt. TM=340 TD=345

      Do I go against FuPeg here? Nope. Even though he has had two super efforts in a row I still think there's more in the tank. His work before he left Churchill left several agape. I'm thinking this race will have that same effect.

      Injecting price into an exacta with a 1-5 shot on top isn't easy, especially with only 8 lining up. Snuck In, despite not racing in Louisville, is my choice for that. He's run some nice races and this race sets up well for him. Likely to be 10-1, maybe more.

     High Yield is going to rebound after another bout with that quirky Churchill surface. That track can turn even the most savvy player into fits trying to figure out just who takes to it and who doesn't. You really have to be there in the morning which, of course, most of us can't. I think he'll find this surface more to his liking.

    Red Bullet has a bright future. Probably will be over-bet, even with an odds-on shot in the same race.

1. Fusaichi Pegasus

2. Snuck In

3. High Yield

4. Red Bullet

Best of luck and enjoy the Preakness.