Saturday July 15, 2000

The 16th Princess Rooney Handicap
11th @ Calder

 

1. Cinemine...Martin/117...Has basically owned Lone Star, and the whole southwest circuit for that matter. She'll now be stepping up a bit but her front-running ability should suit her well on this track. She can run on the front as evidenced by her last two, but the two before that, she pressed a very fast pace and was in the mix, while not winning. She pressed and won last fall at Louisiana Downs, but front-end speed is her ally. As of Thursday, front-runners were winning an incredible 58% here in sprints. To add fuel to the fire, horses parked on the paint in sprints were winning 25%. She hasn't raced since May, so that may be a concern. But Robideaux is winning 19% off the layoff. A contenduh! TM#435

2. Bourbon Belle...Martinez/116...Looks like she might be rounding back to form after taking a little hiatus during Lone Star and Keeneland. She has run well in South Florida, though not Calder, winning the Safely Kept at Gulfstream on Breeders' Cup weekend. Ridden out in a very brisk 1:08:3. That will win this, and I expect she's about ready to pop an effort like that. An incredible 25-13-5-2 at the distance. She won her last at Prairie Meadows and Calder shippers have been doing well there. I wonder if it's reciprocal? She's likely to be favored, or at least, 2nd choice. It's justified. Only concern might be wheeling back in just 2 weeks. TM#305

3. Melodramatic...Douglas/112...She hasn't really shown that she can handle a crowd like this one. Last was her best as well so it might be expected that she'll take a bit of a step back. Totally respect Mills who is winning 38% at the meet but even if she could pair-up the last effort, it would likely leave her a couple of lengths short. TM#345

4. Sugar N Spice...Castellano/112...A nice allowance runner for sure, but now she steps up and it will tell on her. It can't hurt to have Castellano, who has been aboard in 2 of her 5 wins here. Croft winning 4 of 9 at the meet. TM#260

5. Cassidy...Coa/115....She's made a few bucks in her day, and run in some nice company as well. She hasn't run since finishing 3rd in a grade 3 on the Derby under-card. She's run 6 times at Calder, winning2 and placing twice. She does run well fresh but I doubt she can make a dent here off the shelf. This race is just too strong. I wouldn't be surprised if she picks up a minor portion. A win is out of reach I would think. TM#360

6. Hurricane Bertie...Day/119...2nd race off the layoff should make her extremely tough here. Outside post won't help, Pat Day will. Last equaled a career best, and she has shown the ability to pair-up top efforts. Last year at about this time as a matter of fact. She's 19-11-2-2 at the distance so expect her somewhere in the top 3--with no value of course. Flint winning 18% for the year and he an Day combining for 21% from 62 starts. TM#315

7. Show Me The Stage...Desormeaux/120...Has raced twice at Calder winning once--but that was a grass sprint last July. Hard to tell where she'll go off of the last, a 5 furlong turf effort at Lone Star. She's had some top efforts this year, all pretty tightly spaced. Now, off the layoff, should she be considered? The last time off a layoff, she smoked a grade 3 field on a wet-fast Santa Anita strip. The time before that though, here, she finished 6th--in this race last year. Mixed bag, and the outside post doesn't help as she likes it on the front. TM#311

 

      NOTE: Almost every afternoon this time of year, there are strong thunderstorms that pass through the area. Be advised that this race is analyzed for a fast surface, but I have included the Tomlinson Mud Numbers as an added tool. Designated by: TM#

      The rail and early speed belong to Cinemine. I expect that will make her a legit shot to win here.

      Hurricane Bertie will be mighty tough here. I'll play her as well.

      Show Me The Stage could end up the winner or out. I'll take a gamble that she'll hang on for a part..

     

1. Cinemine

2. Hurricane Bertie

3. Show Me The Stage

Best of luck everyone!

 

© 2000 bBra

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