Saturday September 30, 2000

Super Derby XXI
6th @ Louisiana Downs--All carry 124

2. Mass Market...Wilson...Hard to get a grip on his career effort at Mountaineer. I'm not familiar with that track and have no idea how he managed to jump up and score there. He came back in the Pennsylvania Derby and finished a good second after a less than ideal voyage. That on the slop though so no real gauge of his ability. He did win the Nashua at Aqueduct last November, but the time was dreadful. Still have to doubt he's ready to make dents here, especially on top. Exotics aren't out of the question though. Wilson and Perkins combining for 39% wins with a positive ROI.

3. Chris's Bad Boy...Lovelace...No turf to come off of here and he's jumping way up here. Local horses have a history in this race though, and he likely will try things up front in hopes of stealing it. Not necessarily a bad strategy on this track it seems. Young winning 28% at the meet and he and Lovelace combining for 38% and a positive ROI.

4. Tiznow...McCarron...Strong effort in 10 furlong Pacific Classic in only 6th start suggests this one might be special. Good work at Santa Anita last Friday confirms he's sharp as a tack. I fully expect he'll run back close to that effort which should be way good enough to win this. McCarron guided Alysheba back to the winner's circle here 13 years ago. I plunge with both hands when Chris is riding a contender. Breeders' Cup Classic is next.

5. Clever Brick...Lester...Would be a complete surprise if he finishes better than 6th. Can't blame connections for filling field, which it desperately needed, but he's 0 for 13 facing much less this year.

6. White Star...Borque...You have to respect any horse that must be supplemented, but I doubt he's ready to recoup that investment for the connections. He did rattle the cages in a $60K state bred last time, and there's no telling but he might be suited to the stretch-out. Figures to be out of it early and his late kick has company here.  No better than 5th would be my guess.

           Nobody's gonna get rich here, and Tiznow looks to be an absolute standout. McCarron doesn't fly to Louisiana for the Crawfish Etoufee--though I wouldn't blame him.

           DWL is a good enough reason to believe that Commendable is going to complete the exacta--maybe.      

           I'll use Mass Market underneath, knowing that it's a long way from the Pennsylvania Derby to the Pacific Classic, and hoping Chris's Bad Boy can't hold on for a piece.

1. Tiznow

2. Commendable

3. Mass Market