Saturday August 12, 2000

The 26th Sword Dancer Handicap

2. Honor Glide...Santos/116...After basically a non-effort in the Manhattan after clipping heels, he came back nicely in the United Nations. He won this race last year in what likely was a career best effort in about the same situation--3rd off the layoff. Clement continues his usual excellence and it's generally a good bet that his campaigners are set for a piece of the pie (he's been in the money all 6 starts here this year). Santos elevates his game to another level when riding for him too. Don't be surprised if he's standing in the chalk circle after this one.

3. Down The Aisle...Bailey/117...Won the United Nations grinding it out through the stretch and this guy is one tough customer hitting in the money 18 of 19 races. He's coming off a career top (Thorograph), which might not be the ideal scenario for a win here. He does have a win over this course, at this distance which will help. He'll be weaving his way through late. Traffic becomes a consideration as well. Bailey's not winning 39% here, but he's still getting more than his share, and he and Mott cutting the rug at 31%.

4. Single Empire...Desormeaux/119...I'm usually not too keen on western turfers who make the trip up here expecting the expressways they run on in California. However, he did fare well at Belmont in the soft Man O' War last September, then tanked on the firm course next out in the Turf Classic. Could be that the course will favor his ability. He's never really run fast enough to be considered for the win, but the exotics certainly are within reach. Desormeaux and Drysdale winning 33% from 49 starts together.

5. John's Call...Samyn/114...With the exception of the Red Smith, this guy has been very consistent lately. He performed extremely well over the soft going at Laurel last fall. Last two works here have been solid and he likes this track as evidenced by his 8-3-2-1 mark. Finished 4th, beaten only 3/4 in the Baruch here last year in a blanket finish. Could be a sleeper here coming in 2nd off the layoff. Voss winning 31% here, and 32% for the year.

6. Deploy Venture...Espinoza/116...Here's another jetting in from the left coast.  He'll be middle of the pack and has a nice pattern leading up to this one. Let's hope he's had enough time to recover from that Sunset effort 3 weeks ago plus the cross-country trip. He won at Ascot last year over the soft going so course condition shouldn't be a factor. Vienna winning 22% for the year but just 9% graded stakes over his career.

7. Drama Critic...Sellers/114...Totally respect Hennig, but have the feeling this one is overmatched in this spot. He had his chance 2nd off the layoff last out to make an impact at this level, but couldn't go with the leaders. He did fare well at Keeneland earlier in the year, but I doubt that effort will be duplicated here.

8. Elhayq...Bridgmohan/115...Seems to be the "wise-guy" horse of late, but I don't know if he's quite fast enough to score here. He'll have to step it up again to be effective and the addition of lasix 2 races back seems to have moved him up already. He toiled overseas earlier in his career mostly in minor races. Likely to take much more money than he's worth. The time to catch him was in the Bowling Green. If he scores here though, the cat is out of the bag. Can we expect further improvement?

9. Nite Dreamer...Day/114...Here's a dangerous one. He's only run twice on the lawn, finishing 2nd in each. Both times, he was right in line with his dirt efforts. Earlier this year, he ran two BIG efforts on the dirt and seems to be circling back to those now. Soft turf shouldn't be a problem. Distance may be a problem, though you would think Sadler's Wells would instill confidence. Dam-sire could be holding him back but I seem to remember him siring a champion that was able to win at 10 furlongs: Holy Bull. I realize 10 isn't 12, but he might just be able to get this. Just popped a BIG work at Churchill, and you can't discount Day. Don't blame me if you ignore him!

10. Williams News...Albarado/115...Has scored BIG efforts at 12f on yielding surfaces dating back to October at Keeneland. He's been steadily moving forward for the last year and a half. Amoss and Albarado are quite a combo scoring at 29%. That's Mott/Bailey territory! Amoss also scoring 25% of the time this year. 5-2-1-1 at the distance and he won here last year. A strong choice.

11. Boatman...Prado/114...Outside post-positions haven't fared well in this spot. That will make him less attractive than he should be--at least to me. Finished second to Manndar in the Manhattan with a dream trip that he'll not likely get today. That also was a career best effort. Frankel having a career year as well. Distance will not be a problem here. In a field this large the price should be fair, so take a stab if you can stomach the post.

12. Aly's Alley...Davis/114...Obviously, there were high hopes for this one--me included. I plunged on him in the Derby future last year following his monster effort in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He never looked comfortable after that race on the dirt. Looks like he's finally found a home on the green though and nearly popped the United Nations on the front end at a staggering 21-1. Guess what? There is precious little early speed here again today though getting to the front to set up a wall might not be easy from this spot. Still, it looks as though he will be some kind of factor in this race, and might well end up around 20-1 again. Confidence not high in the jock's guild as this will be his 10th rider in the last 11 races.

13. Buff...Gryder/114...Didn't care for the extra 1/8 in the Stars and Stripes at Arlington. This crowd won't make him feel any better about it. He and Aly's Alley appear to be the only early speed here but since they're both parked way outside, it might not matter. Minor award--if any.

         Though the best distance turfers are parked in Chicago awaiting next week's Million, this turned out to be a very competitive affair.

         Williams News looks for all of the world like he's sitting on a win here. I don't care for him being in the 10 hole, but it could have been worse. Don't expect a ton of value here, though the exotics could score quite BIG!

         I don't like his pattern as well, but Deploy Venture could easily sweep in and take this.

         After winning this last year, and apparently rounding back into form now, I can't dismiss Honor Glide completely. I'm finding it increasingly difficult to dismiss Clement as well.

         Call me crazy, but I'm thinking Nite Dreamer could be a factor here. He has a lot of positives, including what should be an astronomical price, and very few negatives. Keep your fingers crossed for 12 furlongs!

         I normally don't go 5-deep, but Down The Aisle should be tough. He could bounce to the moon, or win.

1. Williams News

2. Deploy Venture

3. Honor Glide