Debi Kral

Juvenile contestant Saarland is my early pick for the '02 Derby

The 18th Running--October 27, 2001

 

The Races  

The Distaff
Inside Information 1995 (1 1/8) @ Belmont 1:46
Lady's Secret 1986 (1 1/4) @ Santa Anita 2:01:1

  The BIG Angles: Look for a winner at 1 1/8 during the year. Inside Post positions and early speed help here.

 

    Despite not having won since July, Unbridled Elaine looks to be sitting on a winning race here. She had a wide trip in the Spinster and was unable to make up ground on the leaders on a track that notoriously favors speed. She has good tactical speed which will help her. Mostly, her pattern points to a career best in a field that is very evenly matched. Switch to Dallas comes at a very disadvantageous time.

    Starrer was poised to take the division lead in the CCA Oaks here in July when she took a bad step, stumbled, and dumped McCarron shortly after the start. Hofmans then took it easy on her and it showed in her next start, the Gazelle where she finished 7 back after pushing a hot pace. If not for Miss Linda's freakish Spinster, she wins there and potentially goes off as favorite here. Now she steps in, with no such baggage,  3rd off the layoff and poised to take the division lead again.
 

    Dickinson brought Fleet Renee into the Gazelle off of a mini-layoff after capturing the Mother Goose here and she got pinballed through the stretch to finish 3rd. I've got confidence that the "mad genius" will have the screws tightened to the max for this one and she will be a major factor.

My play: I'll play Starrer in 1st and 2nd with Exogenous, Fleet Renee, Spain and Unbridled Elaine to fill up the $2 tri in the other spots. $48

    You has looked fabulous here on the East Coast and there's no reason to think, 2nd off the layoff and back at Belmont, that she won't score again here.

    Sophisticat is quite an intriguing shipper from Europe. She's only won once, but has given excellent efforts in some nice races otherwise, all on grass. She's out of Storm Cat and Serena's Song so the dirt might produce an extraordinary effort. At the price she'll likely be, it could be very interesting.

    Impressive in her only 2 starts, both at Belmont, Bella Bellucci looks to be right there in the mix. She'll likely be no better than 3rd choice, but looks to have the ability to blow this wide open.

   My play: A good place for a 4-horse tri box. So make it a $1 tri box with the above 3, plus Habibti. Also, a $1 tri key with You on top, and the other 3 under. $30

    Noverre will appreciate the firmer ground he'll get at Belmont and the distance suits him to a fault. Godolphin swung for the fences last year at Churchill in the Juvenile with him. Now he'll make the return trip on his preferred surface and he comes in with serious credentials earned this year in some of the world's most prestigious mile grass contests. If we get rain and the ground comes up less than good, downgrade his chances.

    While he hasn't won since last BC weekend in Louisville, Brahms isn't without positives. He seems to find trouble quite easily and that worked against him last out at Keeneland. However, he looked loaded for bear and Stevens seemed quite excited about his effort after being blocked and finishing just 2 1/2 lengths behind winner Hap. This will be a BIG field which might hamper him, but it's a good chance that 3rd off the layoff after basically a non-effort will be sweet music to his ears.

    After 7 races at longer distances, it appears Canani found Val Royal's calling after shortening him up at Santa Anita. He comes in here very lightly raced and ready for a top effort.

My play: Whew! A tough one. Trifectas are the single best way to make money on BC day so I'll play Noverre in 1st and 2nd with Brahms, Forbidden Apple, Irish Prize and Val Royal over and under. A $2 variety I think. $48

    Are you ready to count out Kona Gold? I'm not. He pressed a 43 and change half last year then went on to set the stakes record on a track that was less than ideal for such foolishness. Off the loss in the Ancient Title, which he won last year, it's quite possible that while getting a little long in the tooth he might have lost a step. IMO though he will sit right behind a blistering pace again and will be in perfect position to pick up the pieces with less than 50 yards remaining.

    Caller One set those fractions last year as a 3 year-old and it's a good bet he'll be right there again. With one more year of experience though, he could hang on for a BIGger piece, or even the picture. The jury remains sequestered on the layoff question. It's for sure he'll be fresh, and he came into Dubai off 3 months and earned a very good Timeform rating while dusting the field.

    Though El Corredor has only won once at 6 furlongs, he has run very fast and is a danger here to make exotics while turning back. Baffert proved in '92 that he can get a sprinter ready for a top effort in this showcase. He'll be a handful.

My Play:  I'll again tackle the tri by keying Kona for $2 over Caller One, El Corredor and Swept Overboard. Also playing the others over and under Kona  for $1. Also, a cold $5 tri of Kona/Caller One/El Corredor.  $23

    Confirmed miler Banks Hill will try stretching out and what better place than against much lesser company than she's used to and shedding a few pounds. Anyone doubt Fabre's ability to score here? I thought not. She's likely to be quite a nice price.

    Chris Clemente has shipped the former Fabre student England's Legend around the country and developed quite a runner. Though she ended up short last out in the Flower Bowl, it's even money she still has something left in the tank for this, her BIGgest test. Sire Lure was his best when the chips were down in the Breeders' Cup.

    Mot Juste liked the heavy going at Longchamp on Arc day. Not likely she'll get that surface here, but if she reverts to Irish Oaks form she'll be quite formidable.

My play: A $5 exacta box with Banks Hill and England's Legend. Also, a $1 tri box with the above 3 plus Crystal Music. $34

    There's no denying, Officer's credentials are valid. His assignment is to keep the streak alive and he's got a very good shot to do it. His closest scare came in the Del Mar Futurity and it really wasn't that close. He won so easily in the Champagne here that he probably thought it was just one of those tough Baffert works. Likely to be a heavy favorite, and deservedly so.

    Came Home left California to avoid Officer's speed trap, but all roads to the division title go through the undefeated colt and after a trip to Saratoga to capture the Hopeful, the son of Gone West will give it another shot. McCarron picks him over the impressive Siphonic.

    Johannesburg has done nothing wrong going undefeated in Europe for his 6 starts, all on the weeds. With his breeding though, not too much of a stretch to label him a factor here. Dosage is his friend at 3.67.

My play: $10 straight exacta Officer/Johannesburg and a  $5 backup. $2 tri key Officer over Came Home, Johannesburg, Siphonic,  and Saarland. And a $1 tri part wheel with Officer in 2nd. $51

    Milan, though 8 lengths back in the Arc, might not have cared for the extremely heavy going. Before that he scored in the prestigious St Leger which followed a win in the Great Voltigeur stakes. Earlier in the year, the 3 year-old just missed the French Derby by 2 lengths after stumbling at the start. Primed for a good off the plane effort at a way overlaid price.

   Fantastic Light is much improved this year and should give quite an effort. One note of concern is that of his his last seven attempts at 12 panels, he has 0 wins to show for it. Granted, the competition has been stellar, probably a notch above this even, but still this fact remains that out of 11 attempts, he has won just 2. I'll use him, there's no doubt. He may even be much the best here. But I don't feel anywhere near as comfortable as I did 2 years ago when I kicked back and watched another Godolphin standout absolutely walk over the field. (Daylami)

    Mutamam showed good early speed in last year's edition leading most of the way and just missing by 3/4 in that blanket finish at 37-1.

    Hap shows excellent speed numbers and a pattern to die for leading into this. Only question is distance. But is that really a question?

My play: Why go any further than a $1 tri box of these 4? Okay, throw in a $1 tri box leaving Fantastic Light, the likely favorite, out. Why not a $2 exacta box on those 3 as well? $42

    I made a trip to Chicago this summer, and I happened to be there when Guided Tour made a shambles of the Washington Park Handicap field. O'Callaghan is as sharp as they come, and doesn't trip over his tongue garnering attention for himself or his trainees. I love his spot here. He's fresh, he's capable, and he's not parked out on the Hempstead Turnpike.

    Macho Uno was my selection in the Juvenile last year and he didn't disappoint. Not surprisingly, he didn't make the Derby and is only making his 4th start of the year here. His pattern shows he is ready to explode and could very well be near the lead at the wire. It's hard to envision a Holy Bull as a BC Classic winner, but don't forget that Holy Bull beat Concern in the 10f Travers in 94, and Concern won the Classic that year at Churchill.

    Despite starting way out on the curve, Aptitude does have a couple of things going for him. The last two Classic winners at Belmont started from posts 10(Cigar), and 14(Unbridled). Not to make a comparison but it shows that winning at 10 furlongs from outside the 7 hole is possible, it just doesn't happen a lot. He's coming off the race of his life too which doesn't make me feel any better about his chances to win here.

My play: $2 tri key, Guided Tour over Macho Uno, Aptitude, Black Minnaloushe, and Freedom Crest. $1 tri part wheel with the same suspects with Guided Tour in the 2nd spot. A $5 exacta box Guided Tour/Tiznow just in case the vodka did some good! $2 exacta box Guided Tour, Macho Uno, and Freedom Crest. $58

    Well, there you have it. $334 wagered and that doesn't include pick 3's and the pick 6. Remember, as always, bet with your head and not over it.