Saturday June 9, 2001

The 133rd Belmont Stakes
10th @ Belmont--All carry 126

2. Balto Star...McCarron...Can't see a son of Glitterman getting 12 panels. Sure Chris will throttle him down trying to milk every last inch out of him that he can, but in a field this tough I just can't imagine the last 3/8 not being his undoing. Sure the pace in Louisville was ridiculous. He was part of it. He figures to get softer shifts here but again, no way is a Glitterman going to win a mile and a half race at this level.

3. Dollar Bill...Day...One of these days, probably in a 2 horse field, he'll get there first. The best showing since the Risen Star came last in the Preakness where he clunked up for 4th after going 9-wide. That's right--9-wide! Reasonable to expect that he'll bounce off of that effort after tough campaign.

4. Thunder Blitz...Bailey...Jerry doesn't hurt, and the reports are that he has put on weight and looks great while preparing for this. While Holy Bull was at his best at shorter distances, his dam side is loaded with stamina and I have very little reservation he could get this. Question is: Is he ready? Steady progression and he ran very well in Louisville finishing 4th. Wouldn't surprise me, but it will be less of a surprise if he wins here later in the year--say, October 27!

5. Monarchos...Chavez...The Derby winner likely fired his best shot in Louisville and could be left wanting here. The pace will be softer and closers don't typically run that well in this race. He's mucho talented and eligible for exotics, but doubtful for the win--I would guess. If he can stay closer to the pace he might have a shot, but he's shown no inclination to that since his allowance win at Gulfstream earlier this spring.

6. Buckle Down Ben...Nakatani...Wasn't close in any early preps this year, except the 1 1/16 Holy Bull. That's not likely to propel him to stardom here. I can't get the sight of Lukas trained Commendable loafing home here last yearout of my mind, but this guy faces a much tougher field in this spot. Probably not at this level.

7. Dr. Greenfield...Prado...Purely a mystery. Can he go where only a few have tread? He certainly appears to be bred for the distance though the experience factor will probably come into play here. Totally respect Team Valor and crew, but have to believe this is just too tall an order at this stage of the game. Price will certainly be fair.

8. AP Valentine...Espinoza...Have to believe that he is finally over the shin problem that has held him back all year. Probably won't be value as he returns to site of last year's Champagne win over Point Given. Zito will need Victor to sit closer to the pace to have a chance but that shouldn't be a problem. Distance breeding is the best in the field and he came around in the Preakness--finally. Sharp work here on Tuesday. He's ready.

9. Point Given...Stevens...There's no denying, he's quite a talented colt. I was less than impressed byt he Preakness win though. It seemed as though his mind was not really on his business through the lane. Looking around, not changing leads, bearing in. What this means I don't know. I'd just like for him to have had an authoritative victory coming in for the price he'll be, which will be awful. I'll still be using him in top two spots, but color me: uneasy.

     I confess, I loved AP Valentine especially after eyeballing him last October at Belmont. I thought he was a lock for the Derby but then the wheels came off. Quite possibly, they are finally back on. We'll know early enough if he has a shot. Up close to what should be a moderate pace, and he could do it. Lagging far behind early, and the 2nd choice will be in the cat-bird seat.

     The 2nd choice is none other than Point Given. No surprise there and not much value either. Not entirely comfortable with his Preakness effort, but he could win easily proving me once again, the king of seconditis.

     Monarchos should finish out this chalky tri. It's a good thing the rest of the card is very intriguing, and possibly financially rewarding. I love this horse but just don't think this sets up well for him.

     Thunder Blitz has made great strides this season. He could be a very nice colt down the road. Look for him around Breeders' Cup time.

1. AP Valentine

2. Point Given

3. Monarchos