Express Tour wins at Calder
The 127th Kentucky Derby
8th @ Churchill
The 127th Kentucky Derby
8th @ Churchill
2. Millennium Wind...Pincay/Hoffmans...I loved this colt in the Blue Grass, and bet accordingly. I can’t say I’m that enamored of him here though. The ouchy heels, the rash, it will all work against him. Not to mention that awful post stuck in between two speedballs down on the rail. He does have Hofmans, and Pincay. It’s too bad he doesn’t have about 2 more weeks. He would be smashing in the Preakness, if he didn’t have to run here. Still, I give him a chance for a part. If Hofmans can get those feet right before post time and he gets a break at the break, he could be formidable. Finished a close second to the top choice last fall.
3. Balto Star...Douglas/Pletcher...The most perplexing horse in the race. What will he do here? Bounce to the moon, or run away and hide with the grandest prize in the sport? He hasn’t really been tested since being gelded. He did finish third at Aqueduct after Pletcher abandoned him for Florida, but he bounced right back to beat allowance horses and thus began his rampage. If the unlikely becomes reality and he gets away soft, it’ll be over at the 1/16 pole. I expect he’ll face more pressure than he ever dreamed possible and won’t care for that during the late stages of this race. Still, I’ll consider him for a piece as I hate to go against a horse that has shown dominance in his last 2. Dam side breeding might add stamina that is lost through sire Glitterman. Has looked great in the morning.
4. Thunder Blitz...Prado/Orseno...The sentimental choice as he won the Flamingo in quite possibly its last running at Hialeah. But he brings more than sentimentality to the Derby table. He has worked forwardly in the mornings here and is a rapidly improving 3 year-old. Just at the right time. Do I think he can win it? Probably not. He would have to run the race of his life against the crop of the century... Would I love to see it? Of course. His daddy was just voted into the Hall Of Fame and I saw him race many times, including the Travers, Blue Grass, and the ill-fated Donn Handicap. Orseno is a fine trainer and it shows on the track in BIG spots, like last year’s Preakness. He has the ability to make the tri, and from the 4 post, he should be able to sit right behind the speed after it breaks to his inside. BIG price!!!
5. Fifty Stars...Meche/Asmussen...Has put in two good efforts in his last two but is he really fast enough for these? He wasn't able to top Percy Hope at Lone Star. He did break his maiden over this track but I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock into that. Slow works, as usual. At one point I thought he might be able to get a piece of this. Now though, I think not.
6. Express Tour...Flores/Suroor...I saw him at Calder last summer and he was most impressive. He was also very impressive in the UAE Derby when losing the lead to Street Cry and coming back again to win. The knocks of course, and we're quite familiar by now, are that he prepped in the desert and has only one prep this year. Simon Crisford insists that Godolphin will continue to train this way. If Point Given can win off of two preps, why not? One day, they are going to win this race. Whether they will have changed their regimen by then remains to be seen, but this horse has as good of a chance to win as they have ever had. His works over this track have attracted quite a bit of attention. Don't say I didn't warn you!
7. Arctic Boy...Borel/Richey...If he was going to take a step forward, the Arkansas Derby would have been the place to do it. Obviously, he didn't like the slop. He didn't particularly work well over this track so it's hard to tell if the Rebel set him back, or he's just not good enough. I'll go with a little of both, with a dash of possibly he'll be better later on.
8. Congaree...Albarado/Baffert...Indian Charlie incarnate, right down to the trainer. He ran the race of his short career in the Wood. Next he comes to Churchill where Bob pumps a couple of very fast works into him. He had only one race as a two year-old so that probably will not be enough of a foundation to build on. I look for him to regress here, but he still might get a piece. That's how loaded Baffert is this year, and that's how good this horse is, and might become. How obnoxious would an all-Baffert exacta be?
9. A.P. Valentine...Nakatani/Zito...At one point I, and a few others, considered him a strong candidate for this race. Then, ironically, things fell apart on this track when he bucked his shins in the BC Juvy. He hasn't been the same since, and certainly hasn't improved the way he would have to, to win this race. There is a possibility he steps forward here and makes some noise, but the way this race is loaded it just wouldn't be wise to count on it. Reportedly had to be pushed in his last work to achieve the time he did. Bad sign IMO. I was at Belmont for his spectacular win in the Champagne and assumed I'd see him standing in the winner's circle today. The fragile nature of these animals never lets you forget exactly what you are dealing with.
10. Dollar Bill...Day/Stewart...Without a doubt, he has run into a heap of trouble in his last two. Bumped at the start of the Blue Grass, he virtually lost all chance at that point because there isn't a chance in hell that any earthbound creature could make up ground on that track. In the Louisiana Derby, a dangerous episode in mid-stretch almost had him going down after clipping heels but Day was able to right him and keep going though not exerting a whole lot of energy. Works have been okay with the best saved for last on Sunday. I don't know that he could win, but a piece is not out of the picture.
11. Talk Is Money...Bailey/Scanlan...He's had his share of difficulties as well, dwelling in the Fountain, bobbling and racing wide in the Florida Derby. Then in the Flamingo he ran wide again losing by 10. At this point I've got serious doubts about his ability to get 10 furlongs. Perhaps he'll have time to develop into a nice horse later on. Bailey won't hurt, but can't save.
12. Startac...Solis/Bray...A bit of a late entry here who ran his best race in the Turf Paradise Derby, which seems to have knocked him out for awhile. Possible he's just coming back to hand, thus the late entry. He looks better suited to the lawn as evidenced by his Grade 3 win last year at Hollywood. Bray is winning 35% this year. I'm inclined to believe he'll not be a factor here.
13. Invisible Ink...Velasquez/Pletcher...Not very fast as a two year-old but 2 of those 3 were in the slop. Came to prominence nicely at Gulfstream winning two allowance events before being thrown to the lions in the Florida Derby. He ran decently there, 7 lengths behind Monarchos then traveled to Keeneland where closing is forbidden and was 9 lengths behind Millennium Wind. Now he moves to a fairer surface and he could be circling back to a pretty decent effort. Win might be a stretch, but exotics certainly within reach. Pletcher will win this soon.
14. Keats...Melancon/O'Callaghan...He'll make things interesting for the front-runners for about a mile. Too soon to bounce back from huge effort at Keeneland where he was losing ground at 1 1/16.
15. Jamaican Rum...Delahoussaye/Cassidy...Stone cold closer comes into this race off of career best effort in sloppy Arkansas derby where he was erratic through the lane. It is quite probable that effort will take it's toll and negate his closing kick especially having to negotiate through crowded field.
16. Monarchos...Chavez/Ward...I was hard-pressed to see why Ward sent him in New York after taxing effort in Florida Derby. He actually ran well in the Wood and was gaining ground on Congaree in the late stages. That might bode well for his chances to get part here as he looks to want to run all day and should have plenty of pace to shoot for. I'd like his chances to win if he had just trained up to the race thus improving (IMO) his chances to pair-up that monster Florida Derby effort. As it is, he should be right there in the exotics depending upon the trip. You can be sure that if he's close Chavez will get everything he has late in the lane. Will it be enough?
17. Point Given...Stevens/Baffert...It’s hard to knock the son of the 95 Derby winner. He’s an especially large colt that doesn’t run or behave like one. He runs like-well, a winner. He’s never been worse than second; is versatile; loves the track; is fresh; and he’s a dual-qualifier. You name it, it rides with him. Let’s not forget Gary Stevens! I can’t remember a horse that came into the race with this much going for him. Well, I guess Spectacular Bid did, but that’s ancient history now. Good move at PP draw planting him on the outside. That was the last hurdle and he couldn’t be better placed. He really has the ability to be something special. Thankfully, Baffert noticed this and hasn’t pushed him too hard. I suspect Bob will be rewarded handsomely come Saturday at about 6:05 E.D.T.
POINT GIVEN looks especially tough and possibly sitting on his "A" race as he has trained marvelously here. An absolute monster stature-wise and Baffert, as we know, knows what he's doing here. Nice tactic not squeezing the lemon too dry before the race. I actually like the post position--believe it or not. I'm hoping there is enough quality in here that he won't get hammered.
Godolphin will win this race soon. It might even be today. EXPRESS TOUR has won some hard-fought victories in his young career and shown heart and talent that in ordinary years might make him a solid favorite. This field is so deep that he might be let off at some insane odds. For that reason, I have to include him. He has a legitimate shot.
As mentioned before, I thought MONARCHOS should have stayed in Louisville after arriving from Florida, but I'm not his trainer therefore I have no say. As it is, he could still be tough. There appears to be enough left in the tank to make the exotics. Trip will be key as he needs to save as much ground as possible, but still will have to negotiate a lot of traffic.
THUNDER BLITZ is improving at just the right time and connections are solid. I would love to see the Flamingo winner win this, but I'll probably have to settle for a shot at the exotics.
DOLLAR BILL has had awful luck in his last two. Is that trend or an accident? He'll have a lot of pace to shoot for and could get up late for a piece.
BALTO STAR could steal this on the front if he shakes free and can outlast his sire. He'll be sent too so the pace will be hot. That last 1/8 mile will stamp his future.
1. Point Given
2. Express Tour
3. Monarchos
6. Balto Star
7. Congaree
$10 TRI-- 17/6,16/4,6,8,10,16 $100
$5 TRI-- 17/6,3,8,16/2,3,4,6,8,10,16 $140
$2 TRI-- 6,3,8,16/17/2,3,4,6,8,10,16 $56