Saturday March 10, 2001

The 50th Florida Derby
All carry 122-11th Race @ Gulfstream

2. Invisible Ink...Velasquez...Pletcher trainee will be coupled with Monarchos so there won't be any value here if you like him. Winner of two straight at two turns here. The last was a very impressive effort just getting up at the wire in a time nearly 2 seconds faster than his previous. Tough decision or whether he's toast or not. He has had 5 weeks to recover. Classic pedigree sprinkled throughout.

3. Outofthebox...Bailey...The question is: Is this colt going to like longer distances? Looked okay in the Fountain, but he had a perfect trip so it might be a bit deceiving. He has good tactical speed which will help him with today's potential traffic problems. He popped an identical work one week before the Fountain. Bailey(24%) stays home with him today. Just a little uneasy about distance question. Maybe I'm off base.

4. Trailthefox...Peslier...He seems to be developing a fancy for the mud, and shorter distances. Hard to like his chances here.

5. Turnberry Isle...Day...Don't ever overlook Lukas here. He has a penchant for winning this race that has driven me to fits in recent years. He ran BIG in his fist start in US at the BC Juvenile. Then Lukas brought him back in the Santa Catalina where the dreaded second-off-the-boat-bounce kicked in and he could get no closer than 10 from Millennium Wind and Palmeiro. Now he's had 6 weeks off and is training well in SoCal. It might be wise to include this one in the tri.

6. City Zip...Nakatani...Nakatani replaces Santos but I doubt he's stout enough to carry this guy over the line. My guess is the son of Carson City wants no part of 9 furlongs, especially after two tough races in a row and picking up 5 pounds. There's always a chance he could steal it but not with the company he'll have up front today. Nice colt nonetheless.

7. Monarchos...Chavez...He looked great winning his maiden here on January 13. He looked even better decimating a good allowance field at two turns 3 weeks later. Now he's had 5 weeks off and it's pretty safe to say that if he runs as well here, he'll be squarely in the Derby hunt. How can a colt that comes in off an allowance and maiden win be favored here, as it's rumored he may be? I don't know. What I do know is he was very impressive stretching out. He doesn't have a lot of company in that department. Ward winning 29% and Chavez is winning 21%.

8. Dream Run...Court...Finished in front of AP Valentine and 4 lengths behind Hero's Tribute in that 7 furlong allowance after the Fountain. Broke his maiden in front of Monarchos on November 24 at Churchill. Impressive credentials, but again, distance has to be a question. McGee wins 20% first time routing.

9. Songandaprayer...Prado...He might have stolen the Fountain, but those fractions were solid. It's possible he needed the Holy Bull after the break and if that's the case, he must be considered live here. Nice work on the 1st so there is still something left. Leave him out at your own risk.

10. Talk Is Money...McCarthy...Stood like a statue at the beginning of the Fountain and the result was a sound whipping as he never really was close. The crowd apparently expected no better from him as he was let off at 11-1. Now he'll break outside and try to score from US 1. Not a good spot on this track, especially for a colt that likes to be up close. Looking at those times he ran in Maryland, I don't know if he'll fit well with these at all.

11. You Know Who...Desormeaux...Boy do I love this guy! Again though, post will hut him. He made a HUGE move on the turn in his last here. He made up 16 lengths after an average first 1/4, including  about 10 lengths through the turn and entering the stretch before finally winning by 3. Is he cooked? Not an easy task for sure, and another step up would be needed here. Dam-sire Criminal Type (Alydar) was Horse of The Year and like to have his tongue rubbed. That's good enough for me.

12. Cee Dee...Migliore...Finished 3rd in the Tropical Park Derby (G3T) at this distance, then 3rd in the Holy Bull. It's possible he doesn't like outside posts, and he's about as far outside as he can get for this. He does have the most two-turn experience in the field. But starting in post 9 in the Fountain landed him an also-ran.

13. It's So Simple...Coa...Ran absolutely huge here on January 21. Three BIG works over at Hialeah since then so if not for post, I think we'd have a live longshot here. Might still be able to get a piece of the tri or super. You never know. Zito is likely searching the bench as top star AP Valentine looks headed for an early shower. It's not so simple.

          Monarchos, though lightly raced, has really impressed me this meet. He looks very much like he wants more distance which he'll get. Both today, and in Louisville.

          It seems that the towel was thrown in on Songandaprayer a bit prematurely. If he wins here, consider him your Derby favorite.

         Outofthebox poses some questions. Maybe we'll get some answers today.

          Like I said, don't leave D Wayne off the plane. Turnberry Isle could be very dangerous here!!!!!!

         Honorable mention to You Know Who, who has a bright future but is probably parked to far out today.

*************************************

1. Monarchos

2. Songandaprayer

3. Outofthebox

5. You Know Who

Good luck everyone!