Saturday August 25, 2001

The 132nd Travers Stakes
10th @ Saratoga
All carry 126

 

1. AP Valentine...Velasquez...The breeding has far exceeded on-track performance for this guy. Sure, he had the setback last year in and after the BC, but he has never lived up to the lofty expectations his family bestowed on him. I know, anytime you are 2nd in the Preakness and 2nd in the Belmont you can’t be too shabby, right? But you have to concede after watching those two races; Was there any doubt that the best horse won? Is there any doubt Point Given is the best of these two, or even the entire three year-old class? With that said, and the poor Jim Dandy effort over a track he may not like, I would say that the chances of him winning or even being in the money will fall far below fair value for the return.

2. Volponi...Migliore...Looks like a bounce candidate if I’ve ever seen one. He clearly ran out of his skin in his last race. To expect him not to react would be unrealistic. On the positive side, he has a win over the track in that last race. But it was against allowance company, he comes back in 26 days and picks up 10 pounds and steps way up. Likely to be spent chasing the leader.

3. Free Of Love...Day...Ran a nice race here in the Jim Dandy only to be caught by Scorpion in the final 1/16. I wouldn't think that bodes well for a stretch-out against these. Breeding, with Meadowlake as grand-sire, further confirms this. Would be a must use, if we were going a mile. A toss at 10 furlongs though.

4. Harrisand...There's no doubt Frankel is on fire right now, and his 47% wins at Saratoga aren't hurting. Also, he's over 30% for the last 90 days. That said, he'll need all the good karma he can muster to have this one get up on time. His last 2 efforts on the lawn weren't enough in grade 3 company, the breeding doesn't look conducive to dirt stardom, he picks up 11 pounds, and the mighty Frankel is only 13% turf to dirt. In the words of Janet Jackson, yes, that's right, Janet Jackson: "Let's wait awhile."

5. Scorpion...Guidry...Sure, he finally got over the top in the Jim Dandy after languishing behind this class for most of the last year. He finished 14 lengths behind Point Given in the Santa Anita Derby and 20 lengths behind AP Valentine in the Champagne. A nice steady progression to his last and he could pair up putting him squarely in the trifecta picture. Breeding is solid and I don't believe 10 panels is too much. In the negative column, Bailey jumps ship and he'll now pick up 12 pounds. A piece, maybe. A win, I doubt it.

6. E Dubai...Bailey...Last two have been good efforts in spite of the slop. Weather forecast calls for clear and beautiful. The first time he caught a fast track on the east coast he blitzed a good allowance field at Belmont after setting quick, but sensible fractions. The fractions in the sloppy Dwyer were anything but sensible, but he still won by 5 suggesting he may be something special. Bailey stays and with a nice break of 48 days, he could be ready to fire a monster shot across the bow of the S.S. Baffert. It appears he will be alone on the lead which could make life difficult for the Belmont winner who was all out to catch Touch Tone in the Haskell. A couple of nice works here put the frosting on the cake. It's his to lose!

7. Point Given...Stevens...Baffert says he was only 80% for the Haskell thus the life and death effort to get past Touch Tone in the stretch. I guess we should listen to Bob though as he has much more to lose than he can gain by running here. He has 3 year-old eclipse sewn up and with a win here, probably Horse Of The Year. As it is, he could probably win the title by default seeing as how the handicap division isn't especially strong this year. I'm not really willing to lay 3/5, or less, on a horse wearing a bar shoe making his first appearance at a track known for burying "can't lose" favorites. No works here either. The race he ran in the Belmont would have set most horses back months and judging by his return at the Jersey shore, we could see a regression here. Definitely the one to beat, but beatable.

8. Dollar Bill...Chavez...Mr. "I can't steer clear of trouble, even in a 7 horse field" returns after the Belmont effort, this time with blinkers. It's amazing they haven't been tried before and they certainly can't hurt. As it stands, I can't make a clear case for him until he starts making up some ground on this class. The works here have been solid. Day moves to another runner. Not clear whose choice that was, but perhaps Chavez will fit better than Patient Pat. A solid 4th, for sure!

9. Hadrian's Wall...Davis...Broke his maiden 3 back and has a win over this track. Not really a lot of positives beyond those. Shouldn't be a factor.

 

 

    Every time Godolphin enters a horse in a BIG race I use them in some way. And every time that is the case, the horse in question runs like it is carrying me as well as the assigned impost. E Dubai looks like a horse that will get loose on his own, and make it mighty tough for anyone to catch him, with or without me.

    Point Given is the king, and if he runs anywhere near his top, he wins by open lengths. I'm just not sure how close to that top he can get.

    Scorpion came to life here in the Jim Dandy. He should be able to hang on for 3rd.

         

 

1. E Dubai

2. Point Given

3. Scorpion

Good luck and have a great Travers Day!!!

© 2001 bBra

BACK