Brad's BIG Race Analysis
Breeders' Cup Edition


Debi Kral

  Ten Most Wanted looks for Classic coronation

The 20th Running--October 25, 2003

 

NOTE: This was done before post position draw. Upgrade and downgrade accordingly.

The Races  

The Distaff
Inside Information 1995 (1 1/8) @ Belmont 1:46
Lady's Secret 1986 (1 1/4) @ Santa Anita 2:01:1

  The BIG Angles: Look for a winner at 1 1/8 during the year.

        Got Koko loves this track, should benefit from the expected pace, and looks primed to move forward. Comes in off a real sharp effort 4 weeks ago. The stars appear to be aligned perfectly.

        Bobby Frankel has Sightseek primed for the trek back west. Or does he? She has finished 2nd here three times. She has raced here three times. Is there any reason to expect better?

           I don't think Elloluv can win at this distance, but she may get 3rd or 4th.   

         

     

10:20am Pacific


 

The Juvenile Fillies
Countess Diana 1997 (1 1/16) @ Hollywood 1:42:1
Twilight Ridge 1985 (1 mile) @ Aqueduct 1:35:4

 

The BIG Angles: Turn time is key here. Also, a prep within the last 4 weeks. Winner will be within 2 lengths at the 1/2 mile call.

    Victory U.S.A. is bred for the stretch-out, and should be comfy on the SA main track. Baffert has been struggling a bit as of late, but this little lady could get him started nicely for the day.

    Halfbridled should be heavily favored given her experience over the SoCal ovals. Her work last weekend was a bit odd. I hate to see anything out of the ordinary leading up to BIG races. That was an out of the ordinary work.

   Forest Music could be real dangerous here. She'll be given every opportunity to win by Gill's barn.

   Society Selection has done nothing wrong. She could be trouble.

   Class Above and Be Gentle as alternates.

 

10:55am Pacific

 


   

 

The Mile
Royal Heroine (IRE) 1984 @ Hollywood 1:32:3
Spinning World 1997 @ Hollywood 1:32:3   

 

The BIG Angles: This is a distance specialist race. Look for those with plenty of experience at 1 mile. Good tactical speed and mid-post positions are helpful.

      The consensus will probably make Special Ring the fav here. He's a deserving choice, and mine as well. He's running and training well, plus he likes the surface. He gets the nod, 2nd off the layoff.

     Refuse To Bend is pure class and should handle this field.

      Oasis Dream has been just short of invincible at shorter distances across the pond. Breeding says this slight stretch-out should be no problem. Don't leave him off of the primary spot on your tix.

     Designed For Luck has never been out of the money in 7 starts over this course. He might make it 8 for 8.

    Century City might be pulling everything together at just the right moment.

   

 

11:35am Pacific


The Sprint
Kona Gold 2000 @ Churchill 1:07:3

 

The BIG Angles: The betting favorite is only 5 for 18 here.

 

          As tough of a field as you'll ever see. I'll take Shake You Down and keep my fingers crossed. Seriously, any of these horses could win here. He looks to be circling to another career best,

      Valid Video has been most impressive the last two times out. Don't curse me if he's standing in the circle when all is said and done. I've only had his pic posted for 4 months!!!

      Aldebaran has had plenty of tune up time since that monster effort in the Forego. Bobby again in the Sprint?

      Private Horde has the ability to surprise here.

      Bluesthestandard is a wacko, but he sure can run when he sets his mind to it. In the money 10 out of 11 starts here.

   

12:10pm Pacific


 

The Filly and Mare Turf
Soaring Softly 1999 @ Gulfstream

 

 The BIG Angles: Outside posts do fairly well here.

     Tates Creek loves this course and looks set up to run a BIG effort here. Top choice!!!

     If Bright Sky handles the course well, she could ace this field. She's competed against, and favorably I might add, the best grass males in the world this year.

     I backed Islington last year and got a nightmare trip and a third place finish for my 4-1. This year she should be right there again. Clear sailing puts her in the circle.

    Bobby's loaded for bear here and Heat Haze just might come out shooting.  

    Bien Nicole figures to make a splash here as well. 

 

12:45pm Pacific


 

The Juvenile
Favorite Trick 1997 (1 1/16) @ Hollywood 1:41:2
Success Express 1987 (1 mile) @ Hollywood 1:35:1

The BIG Angles: The winner will have raced within 4 weeks. Dosage means nothing here, early speed is helpful. Favorites win more than their fair share of these.

    

      There is a good amount of early speed here, which will help Tiger Hunt get the kind of trip he needs to win this thing. Nicely bred and he should be a decent price. Not boxcars, but in the 5-1 range.

    Minister Eric looks poised for a forward move and he's in very good hands. Should be reasonably priced as well.

    Cuvee has been running some knockout numbers. Can he hold it together for this?

    I question whether Chapel Royal really wants the stretch-out. He faded in the Champagne in his first route. He should add pace pressure though.

  

 

1:20pm Pacific


The Turf
Chief Bearhart 1997 @ Hollywood 2:23:4

 

The BIG Angle: A grade 1 winner and 1 1/2 winner during the year have the edge. If both, all the better. Inside posts and early speed have an advantage. Europeans have won this race twice in warm weather sites.

     The Tin Man comes off a small freshening and reportedly is working very smartly for this. His SA record is an outstanding 9-6-2-0. He will be a price with all the Euro-talent in here as well.

     If Falbrav goes here instead of the Classic, expect him to put himself in a position to win. The surface, temperature, and trip are key. He must overcome what 6 of 8 Euros have failed to overcome.

    Storming Home appears to like the states very much, thank you. He is 4 for 4 since coming to the US including the Jim Murray. Oh, but wait a minute, in the Arlington Million he was disqualified for that unusual scary lunge that put Gary Stevens centimeters from death. He'll be tough again. Lets hope he gets a clean trip.

    Sulamani may very well be good enough to win this, Euro record or not. He was the benefactor of Storming Home's finish line meltdown in the Arlington Million.

    High Chaparral as an alternate.

1:55pm Pacific


The Classic
Skip Away 1997 @ Hollywood 1:59

 

The BIG Angles: Grade 1 winner, and dosage under 4.0 please.

       Tough Race! Ten Most Wanted has traveled all over the country and appears to be getting better with each start. He'll be my lukewarm top choice here.

      Medaglia D'Oro has been as consistent as they come and is 2 for 2 at SA. But he hasn't raced since the Pacific Classic in which he finished 2nd. Maybe he's tailing off, but he should still be good enough to grab a check here.

     Dynever never has really lived up to the promise he showed early on. He's had some tough luck, but appears on the upswing. It would not surprise me to see him win this.

     Hold That Tiger ran lights-out in the Woodward, but that was 49 days ago. A tall order to win here, but certainly eligible for exotics.

    Perfect Drift had a bang-up year in which he defeated most of his rivals for Horse Of The Year. He could just roll in and snatch it all away from everyone. If he does, he's Horse Of The Year.

 

2:35pm Pacific


   

 

Best of luck and enjoy the day!!!

Brad's BIG Race Analysis
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