Saturday May 17, 2003

The 128th Preakness
12th @ Pimlico
All carry 126


1. Scrimshaw...Stevens...He looked live in the Derby off that Lexington effort, but ended up racing evenly and in the middle of the pack. I guess it was to be expected off the BIG effort and just 2 weeks of rest. Now he's had just 2 more weeks. Can we expect improvement here or does he continue to tail off? Lukas works magic just when you expect he's fresh out of it.

1a. Senor Swinger...Day...This one could be moving forward and primed for a BIG effort. Baffert opted for the Crown Royal Turf on Oaks day and he passed his first test on the weeds with flying colors. Now, back to dirt where he was less than memorable earlier this spring. Of course, that was before the switch to Baffert. Don't count him out of the money here. Interesting that because of ownership,  Baffert and Lukas coupled here.

2. Cherokee's Boy...Fogelsonger...He's 3 for 3 on this track and I expect a career best here today. Will that be enough to win? I doubt it, but it could very well land him in the money. The Tesio winner is always dangerous for a piece and Capuano and ace Fogelsonger won't hurt his chances. Probably will be a decent price though still a bit of an underlay. Tri and Super candidate.

3. Foufa's Warrior...Dominguez...Not nearly fast enough, even for exotics.

4. Kissin Saint...Migliore...Respectable 3rd in the Wood, though he was 8 lengths back after being taken up. Might not have liked the mud either. Now he could be ready for a monster effort after having not raced since then. Trouble is, he's only showing 1 work in that 6 week period and it was not too compelling. He's live for exotics but tough to get a handle on.

5. Ten Cents A Shine...Bailey...I would not have expected to see him here but his effort in Louisville was surprisingly good. And if he was surprisingly good, then you know Lukas will try him again. The fact that he ran in Louisville was surprising in itself considering he was beaten a combined 80 lengths in his 3 prior. Apparently he had a tooth problem that D.Wayne found and knocked out. Had a smokin' fast work this week too. You might want to consider using in exotics. Darrell is tough here. Bailey ain't in it for a 40 length loss!

6. Midway Road...Albarado...If his Keeneland form holds here he'll certainly be tough. Is it a case of just liking Keeneland, or are there other factors? The turf didn't work. The allowance win at Keeneland last fall was most impressive. He may be ready to pair up his last which would surely put him in the picture here. He does pick up 8 pounds and steps way up. Minor award most likely.

7. Peace Rules...Prado...Numbers suggest he was at or near the top in the Bluegrass. He backed off a bit at Churchill, but still got a check. What comes here? The Florida-bred pressed a very brisk pace in Louisville and was still standing at the end. That would suggest that should he rate just a bit and with 1/16 less to travel should put him right there. He could also regress further. Tough call, and his odds won't be favorable.

8. New York Hero...Chavez...Already making his 8th start this year without any foundation at 2. My guess is he regresses further here. Then he should get a break.

9. Funny Cide...Santos...Boy, you'd think a guy could relax and enjoy the Derby afterglow! Not with the Miami Herald on the case. Last week had to piss-off former Presidential candidate Gary Hart. I can envision him saying, "Why couldn't the Miami Herald have been this incompetent when Donna and I were dating?" Anyway, the outside post hurts this guy more than anything. He'll not have a garden trip as in Louisville and I'm afraid that's gonna cost the Derby winner the chance for the triple.



       Yes, I'm crazy. But I'm taking Ten Cents A Shine here. He's ready for a career best and his physical problems are behind him. Bailey, Lukas, and a morning-line of 15-1. You're going to thank me for this one later!

    Funny Cide could win, but I'm afraid the outside post is going to leave too much to do for him. I'll be at the Belmont rooting him on should he grab this.

    Peace Rules probably would prefer distances closer to a mile, and he was in perfect position 2 weeks ago and couldn't get it done. Now on 2 weeks rest he has to come back and try again. Out of the money not unlikely.

    The local Cherokee's Boy is 3 for 3 on this track. He is the Magic Weisner of this running..


    1. Ten Cents A Shine

2. Funny Cide

3. Peace Rules

4. Cherokee's Boy

Best of luck everyone!


2003 bBra