Saturday February 15, 2003

The 57th Fountain Of Youth Stakes

11th at Gulfstream-ESPN 5-6pm Eastern


1. Supah Blitz...Homeister Jr./120...Finished 10 1/2 behind Trust N Luck at Calder in the Florida Stallion Stakes at this distance, but finished just 2 back in the Tropical Park Derby on the grass 3 months later. Breeding says distance shouldn't be a problem, but he might prefer the weeds. I'm not really convinced that he's fast enough anyhow.

2. Ten Cents A Shine...Bailey/116...McPeek brings the son of Devil His Due in fresh off of the dead-heat win here on Jan 31. It might be a bit premature for this, but he shows signs of being very special later on. He would be undefeated if not for the roughly run Ky Jockey Club stakes in November. In that race he was bumped sideways coming out of the gate and spotted the leader 19 lengths, made a huge middle move where he actually had the lead in the stretch, then couldn't hold off the winner losing by a length. A rousing work here on Monday signals he is ready.

4. Ozzie Cat...Day/118...West coaster brought in by Lukas very nearly won the Golden Gate Derby in his 2nd start of the year. Has performed well enough on off surfaces, but he won't likely get that here. He's another who must take a step up to be a factor as he just doesn't appear quick enough to get a paycheck here.

5. Midway Cat...Chavez/116...Just ran his eyeballs out in an allowance here last out. He almost certainly will regress off of that effort as it was his best, by a wide margin, ever. Might be a useful allowance runner down the road, but I'm not sure he's quite ready for these.

6. Whywhywhy...Prado/122...He tanked badly in the Juvenile as the favorite. It could be that he ran too fast too early last year, in which case that wouldn't bode well for his chances at the Classics this year. You might give him the benefit of the doubt here as it's his first since the BC and he's likely to need it. It's possible the Futurity effort took too much out, but he shouldn't have folded as badly as he did at Arlington especially given his record coming in. Let's give him this one to see if he really wants two turns. Price will be unfavorable as well.

5. Trust N Luck...Velasquez/122...Absolutely ran out of his skin last time, but he has some time to recover and it shouldn't kill him here. He'll be a part of several who should show speed and he won't get away with 1:12:2 in this spot. Figures to be pressured into submission. While I can see him running a good race and getting a piece, I won't have him singled in any exotics.

7. Conservation...Santos/116...Might improve enough first time routing to get a piece. Has really been working nicely in the morning. Breeding looks good for the stretch-out. It's really difficult to gauge just how good he'll be without any distance experience. Tagg is 10% first time routing.

8. Seek Gold...Coa/116...I've been a bit disappointed with the Touch Golds this year. And this dam, even though she is out of Alydar, has had 3 unraced foals during her career and the other 2 had 11 wins from 23 starts, with no stakes wins. Zito not having a banner meet either. Lots of negatives and his price will surely reflect it.

9. Offlee Wild...Guidry/120...I don't know what to think about his work on Wednesday. (5f in 57:2) I loved him in the Holy Bull, and I really think he can be something special, but 57 and change 3 days out on this track! I don't know. If he overcomes it and wins, then watch out! If he folds with an 1/8 to go then they'll know better next time. Breeding is excellent for distance. Only problem is we won't get 27-1 again. Last year, Booklet won the Holy Bull then this. I'd like to think this guy is better than Booklet. Outside post--again.

    Ten Cents A Shine looks primed to run the winning race here. He'll be my key.

    Trust N Luck has had plenty of time to recover from that super effort and should hang in for a piece.

    Offlee Wild would garner more support if he hadn't worked so quickly on Wednesday. If he wins in spite, you can stamp his ticket to Louisville now.

1. Ten Cents A Shine

2. Trust N Luck

3. Offlee Wild

Best of luck everyone!

2003 bBra