Brad's BIG Race Analysis
Breeders' Cup Edition


Cindy Pierson Dulay

  Kitten's Joy  gets acquainted with Lone Star

The 21st Running--October 30, 2004

 

The Races  

The Distaff
Inside Information 1995 (1 1/8) @ Belmont 1:46
Lady's Secret 1986 (1 1/4) @ Santa Anita 2:01:1

  The BIG Angles: Look for a winner at 1 1/8 during the year.

             The defection of Azeri makes this a more juicy proposition, not that I would have necessarily have picked her on top anyway.

         Island Fashion should be primed for a grade "A" effort in this spot, second off the layoff. She took on the males in the Santa Anita Handicap earlier in the year and was quite impressive finishing a strong second to Southern Image. She'll be a respectable price as well.

        The most likely favorite, Ashado has done very little wrong this year but will have to put two strong efforts together in order to score here. Something she has had trouble with in the past.

        Indy Groove may finally be in the groove. Sure her last was at Mountaineer, but it was a superb effort and she certainly has the breeding to play the part here. I expect she'll be a major force next year if she remains in training.

        Nebraska Tornado has disappointed this year in Europe on the grass, but is bred superbly for this.

          $1 PICK4- 1,8,10/1,5,9,10/3,6,11/5,13    $72

12:20pm Central


 

The Juvenile Fillies
Countess Diana 1997 (1 1/16) @ Hollywood 1:42:1
Twilight Ridge 1985 (1 mile) @ Aqueduct 1:35:4

 The BIG Angles: Turn time is key here. Also, a prep within the last 4 weeks. Winner will be within 2 lengths at the 1/2 mile call.

 

             I consider this the most difficult race on the card, and I suspect you could say that most years, so no whining when I bomb here.

       Balletto has good early speed, and inside post, and Bailey. She is bred for this and more and I expect her to put in a BIG performance here.

      Sweet Catomine will likely be a short price, but she looks rather formidable for only her 4th start. I expect SoCal horses to have an edge on this track, not that she needs one.

      Sense Of Style had traffic issues at Keeneland last out, or else she might be undefeated coming in here. Look for her to get back on the right track here. 

      Culinary has done nothing wrong so far.

      

12:55pm Central

 


   

 

The Mile
Val Royal 2001 @ Belmont 1:32
 

 The BIG Angles: This is a distance specialist race. Look for those with plenty of experience at 1 mile. Good tactical speed and mid-post positions are helpful.

        I'm taking a chance here with Artie Schiller on top. His last two were very good efforts and his late move in the Hill Prince was spectacular. This will be the toughest task of his life, but I believe he'll be up to it with a decent post.

       Six Perfections came in last year and just got up by the hair on her chinny chin chin after balking at the gate. She looks similarly poised this year, though maybe a step slower. 

      Special Ring has only raced once this year but it was a winning effort in the Eddie Read. Now he shortens for this. Could be a winning move.

     Singletary and Nothing To Lose will be right there in what could be the day's best race.    

             

 

1:35pm Central


The Sprint
Kona Gold 2000 @ Churchill 1:07:3

 

The BIG Angles: The betting favorite is only 5 for 20 here.

      Chaos at it's best. This race should be a cavalry charge!

      Kela's last two efforts would be enough to ace this. Now after a nice break and under the umbrella of Mitchell's barn, which is on fire, he should be set and ready for this.

      Midas Eyes hasn't won at 6 furlongs this year, but he has performed well in his last two. He also comes in fresh and will be counting on Frankel to warm up his BC record.

     Abbondanza comes in off of a monster effort in Philadelphia, and should be tight for this one.

     Speightstown bobbled at the start of the Vosburgh and it obviously cost him. Look for some redemption here from the $2,000,000 yearling. 

            

2:10pm Central


 

The Filly and Mare Turf
1 3/8 Perfect Sting 2000 @ Churchill 2:13 
1 1/4 Islington 2003 @ Santa Anita 1:59

 

 The BIG Angles: Outside posts do fairly well here.

        I'll go out on a limb a bit with Wonder Again. She should be ready second off the layoff with some nice efforts at this distance. Price will be right and post shouldn't matter.

      Everyone expects Quija Board to ace this. I'm not so sure. She has a bad habit of starting poorly and she is unfamiliar with this type of setup in a race. Not the kind of scenario you want as a heavy favorite.Still, she is a very talented filly and it will come as no surprise if she scores here.

      Yesterday could come sailing in and lay claim to this. Yet to win since May of 03 though.

     If Light Jig can improve off of the Yellow Ribbon for Frankel, she could be right there.

     $1 PICK 4- 5,12/3,4,6/1,4/1,6,8,9,12   $60

2:45pm Central


 

The Juvenile
Favorite Trick 1997 (1 1/16) @ Hollywood 1:41:2
Success Express 1987 (1 mile) @ Hollywood 1:35:1

The BIG Angles: The winner will have raced within 4 weeks. Dosage means nothing here, early speed is helpful. Favorites win more than their fair share of these.

       

            

      I think Proud Accolade runs away and hides here. Is this his distance limit? Most likely. Will he win the Derby next year? Absolutely not. But he is suited to win this, and it won't be close--probably.

     Afleet Alex has been most impressive, his lack of distance breeding notwithstanding, still could be better suited to this distance than both of the top two choices. It would not surprise me to see his connections having a blast in the winner's circle before the day is done.

    I'm not the least bit fooled by Roman Ruler. I don't think he'll be close at the end, but he still could grab 3rd. <cringe>

     Consolidator has the connections and breeding to be a major player in this game. Graduation Day???

  

 3:20pm Central


 

 

The Turf
Chief Bearhart 1997 @ Hollywood 2:23:4

 

The BIG Angle: A grade 1 winner and 1 1/2 winner during the year have the edge. If both, all the better. Inside posts and early speed have an advantage. Europeans have won this race three times in warm weather sites.

        I have no doubt that Powerscourt would have won a 1 1/2 mile Arlington Million* by 4 or 5 if his jockey could have kept him on track. Spencer won't make the same mistake twice, and he'll be a deserving winner!

       Kitten's Joy is a lot of fun to watch. If he wins here, which is pretty likely, he'll be a Superstar next year. An American grass Superhorse. Nice!!!

       Star Over The Bay should make this interesting. Another Mitchell starter with Baze. Good price!

       Last 6 efforts have been strong for Canadian Strut The Stage. He should play a part.  

   

   *Note: The Arlington Million is 1 1 /4 miles.

3:55pm Central


The Classic
Skip Away 1997 @ Hollywood 1:59

 

The BIG Angles: Grade 1 winner, and dosage under 4.0 please.

         This race has a strange feeling this year. I believe it could be monster payoffs, like 1993. Maybe not that large, but definitely in the same Arcangues-Code. Now that I have said that, Ghostzapper will probably win by 37 1/2 lengths.

        But I won't play him on top. That award goes to Roses In May who I think is ready to walk off with a BIG win here. 

        Personal Rush is a horse I'd love to own. He's got tremendous breeding (Wild Rush out of the Alydar mare Personally), comes in off some nice overseas scores for a first shot at American classics,  and oh yeah, Frankie Dettori up. He's no stiff. $240k purchase last year!!! He'll pay $150 plus if he wins!

       Perfect Drift has finished 2nd more times this year than Jennifer Lopez and Britney Spears combined! Trouble is, when he gets to the Breeders' Cup he usually spits the bit altogether and can't be found for love nor money. What to do??? What to do??? Toss him. Use Funny Cide instead!

       I guess I have to mention Ghostzapper, so there he is. He could win by 10, but at his price I can't tout him on top. 

      

    

4:35pm Central


   

Best of luck and enjoy the day!!!

Brad's BIG Race Analysis
WWW Edition