Saturday January 17, 2004

The 15th running of

The Holy Bull Stakes
10th Race @ Gulfstream

 


1. Seneca Summer...Coa...He didn't really appreciate the stretch-out last time. That was at HOU so I guess a pass is in order. I'd like to see more before getting excited about a Texas-bred enterin the Triple Crown fray here.

2. El Prado Rob...Prado....Has had a couple of roughly run races last two and though he came through admirably in the allowance at Keeneland, he completely chucked it in the Remsen. Beaten by 13 in the Futurity prior. Zito winning 1 for 14 as of yesterday.

3. Hopefortheroses...Douglas...Harold Rose legacy lives on here, but I'm afraid this one is in over his head in this spot.

4. Silver Wagon...Bailey...Is he distance-shy, or was the trip what did him in last time? I'm inclined to believe a little of both. Bailey returns so all is not lost. A couple of nice works and 2nd off the layoff as well.

5. Friends Lake...Migliore...I guess after last year I'll have to start looking a bit harder at New York breds??? This one may make up for Funny Cide's failure here last year. May have run too fast for his own good last time. He'll enjoy the extra distance and could be all alone and drawing off with 1/16 to go. Strong works over the deep Payson surface will assist. Kimmel wins 18% 90+ days away.

6. Second Of June...C. Velasquez...Everything says go here. Breeding, works, distance. Everything. This will be his 5th effort at a mile or more. Father loved this track.  Trip will be key.

7. Tap Dancing Mauk...Perret...Another Louis Quatorze, but is he ready for these off of a maiden win? Finished 3rd at 107-1 two back at Churchill. Romans winning for fun with 5 from 9 at the meet as of Friday. Probably not, but could hit board at BIG price.

8. Hitthegroundrunnin...Toscano...Nice enough local horse with good efforts and good works. Might be a step or two slow, but could still threaten. Croft winning just 9% first time routing and 0 for 8 in graded stakes.

9. Caiman...Boulanger...Been running in Mexico. Very mediocre times. Medina winning just 2% first time routing but is 2 for 8 in graded stakes with a whopping +24 ROI. Breeding looks respectable too. Hasn't raced for 3 months and showing only 3 works. Picks up considerable weight. Sneaky!!!

10. Smoocher...Santos...Don't care for the post position but he normally settles and makes one move anyway so maybe it won't hurt him too much. Good works here. Looks as though turf may be his future if he doesn't cut the mustard on the trail. Switch to Santos should help. 

 


      I didn't analyze this race last year and ended up picking and betting the $56 winner. (Offlee Wild, and yes, I have witnesses) Also, Funny Cide ran in this race last year, finishing well from the 13 post. Will this year's Derby winner be in the field???

     I love the way Second Of June fits here. It seems as if everything points to him.

    Friends Lake has the ability to blow this wide open. Point me to the futures book if he does

    It could be that Tap Dancing Mauk is better than I give him credit for. We'll see what happens.

    I'll get the price I'm looking for, for Caiman to complete the Super. Could finish dead last too!

 

    

1. Second Of June

2. Friends Lake

3. Tap Dancing Mauk

2004 bBra


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