Saturday March 4, 2006



Alydar wins the 1978 Florida Derby

The 60th Fountain Of Youth Stakes

10th @ Gulfstream

 


1. Great Point...Rose/116...$450k son of Point Given finished like a freight train in the Holy Bull after getting clogged around the final turn. Was probably aided by swift fractions in the slop, and still is eligible for NW1 other than. He put in an absolutely smokin' work here on the 17th. Looks to have some ability but he may need more time to get into the mix with the likes of these. Wouldn't surprise me, but I'm not counting on him to win here.

2. My Golden Song...Velasquez J/116... Though he seems a step slower than others here, you have to respect the Pletcher "magic" as he is currently ringing them up to the tune of 29%. He's been putting on quite a show in the mornings at Palm Meadows. Is he ready to pop?

3. Hemmingway's Key...Douglas/116...Finished 17 lengths back in the Holy Bull, but may not have liked the slop. Still would need major improvement to make coin here.

4. Jazil...Velasquez C/116...Finished a close 2nd to Corinthian in that allowance on the 2nd. He actually led late, but succumbed to that one. Working nicely at Palm Meadows and McLaughlin is doing quite nicely here.

5. Itsallboutthechase...Guidry/116...Had him finishing strong in the Aventura, and he didn't disappoint at nearly 8-1. A repeat of that would make him very tough here. Probably didn't care for the Holy Bull track condition. He won't have to worry about that here. Contender for exotics.

6. First Samurai...Prado/120...Absolutely should be the favorite. Absolutely will be the favorite. And absolutely should finish the deal. But at what cost? 2-5? Something really unusual would have to happen for him not to win this, but there's still no such thing as a sure thing. I'll try to beat him, modestly. But he's a stone cold single in the pick 4, especially if you spread in any of the other races. Of course, everyone else will play it the same way.

7. Corinthian...Castellano/116...I loved him in the Aventura, but he looked terrible when he stepped on the track. Very washed out. I didn't see him in the walking ring, but he must have really been freaked. Subsequently, the vet scratched him at the gate. He looked much better in that allowance where he out-gamed Jazil. You can't complain about the breeding, it is spectacular, and he is quite a specimen. Is he ready to beat First Samurai? Probably not, at least not yet. But watch out down the road!

8. Rehoboth...Bridgmohan/116...Hasn't shown that he can handle this distance, at any level. Especially not against the likes of these.

9. Can't Beat It...Castro/116...Probably a bit over his head here. He's run some nice ones on the grass, but none would be fast enough to threaten these.

10. Flashy Bull...Bejarano/116...Good finish in the Remsen, and first off the layoff in the slop he faltered a bit. Should be ready to move right back to his best here. Trouble is the post position will be his undoing. Nothing I'd like better than to see a son of Holy Bull in the chase, but don't count on him here. Perhaps he'll draw more favorably a month from now.

 


     

I loved Corinthian earlier, and I'm not going to waver. It'll be a tough assignment, but we'll get to see how far along he really is against the best.

First Samurai should be a standout here. 

Jazil was tough vs. Corinthian 30 days ago. If he improves any at all, watch out!

 

1. Corinthian

2. First Samurai

3. Jazil

Best of luck everyone!

 

2006 bBra


BACK