Saturday March 3, 2007

Alydar wins the 1978 Florida Derby

The 61st Fountain Of Youth Stakes

10th @ Gulfstream


1. Johannesburg Star...Maragh/116...Ran very well breaking his maiden on the inner at AQU in December, and predictably backed up a bit in the Count Fleet. A repeat of the maiden effort may get him a piece, but how likely is that? Trainer is 0-16 at the meet. Front running style will be helpful, but I like others better at this point.

2. Hal's My Hope...Rivera II/116... Seemed to wake up when stretching to 9 panels last out, scoring at 108-1. He'll have plenty of company today though, and they won't be crawling 3/4 in 1:13and change. Rose is 0-13 in graded stakes. Too slow.

3. Drums Of Thunder...Cruz/120...Progressed nicely last year and ran his best race in the What A Pleasure at Calder at 1 1/16. Opened this year with a nice effort in the Holy Bull where he was gaining on the leader while running out of room at a mile. Now he stretches to 1 1/8 and is 2nd off the layoff. He has a good style for this as he likes to press. I have a question about the distance. It's my feeling that his best may be 1 1/16 and this may be pushing it. Other than that, he's a good upset candidate.

4. Stormello...Desormeaux/122...I thought this guy was primed to run a BIG one at the BC in November. He was even on the golden rail that day but tired to finish 15 lengths out. He promptly shipped back to Hollywood and won the Hollywood Futurity. So what gives? Is it Cali only for this guy, or can he take his race with him? Doesn't like Churchill? Who knows. Yet another who will want to be up close early.

5. Nobiz Like Shobiz...Velasquez C./122...He'll be the deserving favorite and has done nothing wrong. Will lightning strike twice for Barclay? It's been my feeling that the Remsen winner has an edge during the Triple Crown campaign, but it usually doesn't work out like that. Distance won't be a problem even though he was losing ground at the end of the Holy Bull. I expect he'll be properly tightened for this. His best race at 2 will win this. Shouldn't be a problem.

6. Meritocracy...Bejarano/116...Although he's got the Pletcher magic working for him. (Or whatever we're calling it this week) He seems much too slow based on previous efforts. He'll want to be close to the front as well. That alone will probably do him in.

7. Divine Master...Douglas/116...Beaten 11+ lengths here by Hal's My Hope last month.

8. Scat Daddy...Velasquez J./122...Well bet in the BC, after which he took off until the Holy Bull. Before that, a nice effort in the Champagne at 1 mile. An effort like that here would put serious pressure on the fave. Perhaps this is too far for him. I don't see much that makes me like him for anything better than 3rd or 4th. He'll have to beat me to earn my respect.

9. Adore The Gold...Prado/120...If you look back to the Dover at Delaware Park on October 21 of last year, you can see that he may just have a real shot at exotics. He sat right off of a mediocre pace then took off in the stretch. That was at 1 1/16 and he's been sprinting since then. Now he'll go at 1 1/8 and if he can sit off of a similar pace here he could be left standing with a 2nd place finish at the end of the day. A win would probably be stretching it. 



   It's hard to get past Nobiz Like Shobiz for the win. As it is he should win, if he progresses off of the last race at all he'll be nearly impossible to beat, by these. 

    Drums Of Thunder is intriguing and should be quite a price. 

     Adore The Gold is another that will be a nice price that I give a real shot to make some noise. The outside post could hurt his chances though.

     Scat Daddy will be over-bet, and may not like the distance. He looks best of the rest.

1. Nobiz Like Shobiz

2. Drums Of Thunder

3. Adore The Gold

4. Scat Daddy

Best of luck everyone!


2007 bBra