Saturday May 19, 2007

Alydar wins the 1978 Florida Derby

The 132nd Preakness Stakes

12th @ Pimlico-All carry 126


1. Mint Slewlip...Garcia...I'd be proud to own this horse, but he really has no business in this race. I'm waiting for the day that I say that and the horse wins. I've been waiting 10 years.

2. Xchanger...Dominguez...Last was a career best effort. To expect him to improve on that, which he would need to do to win, is not realistic here. Possible for bottom of super.

3. Circular Quay...Velasquez...There are two ways to look at this one. Either he had too big of an effort in the Louisiana Derby to recover from, or he's now 2nd off the layoff and ready to equal or better that performance. I have to be honest, I don't know which way to go at this point. A lot will depend on his odds, which with Velasquez jumping on, won't be value.

4. Curlin...Albarado...This one I'm more sure of. I'll let him beat me. No foundation at two, and 4 top efforts this year, 2 weeks off of the most grueling race of his career. No thanks. Can he get a piece? Absolutely. But if he does, don't expect to see him for several months after--at least.

5. King Of The Roxy...Gomez...I've read and heard a lot about this guy for the past two weeks. His pedigree screams pure sprinter. I can't see it.

6. Flying First Class...Guidry...He's likely to be winging it on the front early, but he won't be around at the finish. Likely last. The question becomes who will go too fast to hang with him? My opinion is that he needs minimal, if any, pressure to fold entering the stretch. When the real running starts, he'll be backpedaling. 

7. Hard Spun...Pino...I hope he can rate, but he hasn't yet successfully. It could be his undoing if he tries to hang with the 6 here too early, and breaking right next to him won't help. That said, he was presenting a Derby winning effort before Calvin passed 18 horses on the rail. The breeding couldn't be better for a Classic. I love this horse! 

8. Street Sense...Borel....The 2 year-old champ wins the Derby! That's something we haven't been able to say in awhile. Now we have to decide if this horse is just a freak at Churchill, or if Carl has been sandbaggin' on us. His two huge efforts have come at Louisville. Every place else there are nagging questions--maybe. If Carl didn't have him fully cranked, you can excuse the tight finishes. I think he runs another BIG effort here, but the rail may not be as easily accessed, and he may be feeling some effects. 

9. CP West...Prado...In spite Zito's ability to punish me when I ignore his horses for the last few years, I have no problem ignoring this one. Once again, would be proud to call him my own, but I would never put him in this position.


     Hard Spun goes on top again. I dare you to beat him! 

    Street Sense may just do it, but this is going to be much tighter.

    Though he has a sprinter pedigree somehow or another Xchanger was a winner here at 1 1/8 in the Tesio. It's hard to ignore Shuman's 48% winning rate. Given those two tidbits, I'll use him here just in case. 

    Circular Quay rounds out the exotics.


1. Hard Spun

2. Street Sense

3. Xchanger

4. Circular Quay

Best of luck everyone!


2007 bBra