Brad's BIG Race Analysis
The 142nd Travers
12th @ Saratoga...All carry 126
1. Bowman's Causeway...Dominguez...Chad Brown is burning up the meet winning 30%, and in the money 60%. Didn't really fare well earlier in the year in Florida against these same types. Absolutely bred for the distance as he just missed in The Prince Of Wales at Fort Erie. I think it would be safe to expect an effort similar to his Fountain Of Youth. He just appears several steps slower than these.
2. Rattlesnake Bridge...Velasquez J...Ran well in the Long Branch after stumbling at the start to just get up at the wire. That was a career best effort but he should have had plenty of time to get over that. Only issue is distance. Tapit not an issue, Cherokee Run mare on the bottom may well be. If the distance is not an issue for him, he will be in the mix. That last 1/8 will be telling.
3. Moonshine Mullin...Wilson...Ran a career best in the Jim Dandy to finish 2nd at 37-1. That is likely his best for awhile though as he has already developed significantly since his 2 year-old. season. Coming right back here, I would expect him to tail off significantly. That number he ran in the JD will leave him short of exotics, even if he can duplicate it.
4. Ruler On Ice...Valdivia...Another that has developed a lot since his 2 year-old season, but this one won the Belmont. Came back in the Haskell and while running well, was no match for Coil. Now he is 2nd off the layoff and had a real nice work on the 13th at Monmouth. Is this too soon? A repeat of that effort would put him close.
5. Malibu Glow..Maragh....Have serious doubts he wants this distance at this level. He bore in last out and held on to win that allowance by 3/4. Can't believe that sets him up well for this.
6. Raison D'etat..Castro...Beaten by Malibu Glow earlier in the year. However, the paths taken since have been different, and this one is more lightly raced. Breeding suggests this is within his reach. Possible move forward which would put him in exotics at a price.
7. Coil...Garcia...Was running pretty well out west on the synth. Baffert shipped him in for the Haskell and he exploded! He may be coming back too soon for this, however that work on the 23rd suggests he is ready. He may have another forward move in him and if he does here he will be tough. If he had 6 weeks since the Haskell he would be an easy choice. With 4 weeks....
8. J W Blue...Velasquez C...Dutrow in the money in 10 of 12 starts at the meet. (As of Friday) He's run a lot this year but this is coming after a brief freshening, and his longest break of the year. Works are in line. He appears a bit slow for these. That coupled with the fact that he may need this will make me look elsewhere.
9. Stay Thirsty...Castellano...It's obvious he likes this track, and that is half of the battle. Just ran a career best in the Jim Dandy. Now he'll have to come back in 4 weeks and do it again. Pletcher says he hated the heat on Florida Derby day. (It was hot) He also says that his shortcoming in Louisville was the result of working on a wet track, then getting a different track on Derby day. Ok. Maybe he likes wet tracks. He does like New York because for whatever reason, he has never won outside of there. One thing that does concern me are his works leading up to this. That's a BIG top he just ran. If he pairs he wins. IF.
10. Shackleford...Castenon...This guy has run 5 tough races in a row. It seems he always fires. He just got nailed in the Haskell after stumbling at the start. It might be a bit problematic for him trying to get the lead from this outside post which will compromise his chances of wining. I fully expect him to be prominently placed in the exotics nonetheless.
Irene will not pose an issue for this race. She's not expected in the area until Sunday.
Coil will be tough, and if Garcia can get him to settle in 4th or 5th going into the first turn he should have a great shot.
I have new found respect for Ruler On Ice.
Shackelford will fire, but being that far outside will make him work harder for the lead.
Stay Thirsty should be close, although I think the draw hurts his chances more than others.
I know it's chalky. But what can I do?
Exacta box: 7-4
Win bet on 7